Papua New Guinea (PNG), a Pacific island nation, is the new pivot of geopolitical tussle. Washington, Beijing and Delhi as well are re-discovering the strategic centrality of PNG and other Pacific island countries in the Indo-Pacific. While U.S. Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken headed an American delegation to PNG, Prime Minister Narendra Modi landed in the capital city of PNG, Port Moresby for the 3rd India-Pacific Islands Cooperation (FIPIC).?
While the stated agenda of these meetings with Pacific island leaders were health, development and climate change, the undercurrents of geopolitics cannot be ignored. Alarms bells started ringing last year when China signed a security agreement with the Solomon Islands. Now, a defence cooperation pact signed between the United States and PNG envisions improving PNG¡¯S capabilities and pave way for ease in bilateral military training exercises.
The Pacific island nations have increasingly gained geopolitical significance in light of the quest for influence in the Indo-Pacific primarily between the U.S. and China. However, the role of India, and its impact on how the regional geopolitics shapes up cannot be discounted either.?
The unmistakable rise in China¡¯s material capabilities and its thirst for global influence has led to several diplomatic initiatives to lure countries into its orbit. Lately, the Pacific island countries have come under Beijing¡¯s radar screen and therefore, Washington as well has started giving hitherto delayed attention to the region.?
In the midst of this new geopolitical tussle, the island countries are emitting signals of quintessential balancing behaviour and hesitance of going too close to one at the expense of the other. Although the United States has a longer history of relationship with the Pacific island nations, China¡¯s new found ability to offer incentives has infused new great power dynamics into the choices of regional players.?
As in many other regions of the world, China has become a major economic partner of the Pacific island nations, increasing its diplomatic and security profile in the region. Therefore, the U.S. along with other like-minded stakeholders like Australia, New Zealand, Japan are building on the historical partnerships, trying to reduce the perceptions of neglect evident among many of these island countries.?
The maritime shift in China¡¯s military strategy and its intent to project power beyond the Asian waters presents a new challenge for the United States. To what extent Washington¡¯s presence in the region can deny access to China¡¯s blue water ambitions is the pivot of the new emerging geopolitics of the Pacific islands.
Even as the United States show new enthusiasm to create webs of interdependence that are both military and non-military in nature, Pacific Island leaders show concerns of being sucked into the U.S.-China rivalry. While welcoming the renewed security pact with the U.S., the PNG Prime Minister James Marape publicly insisted that the understanding had ¡°nothing to do with China.¡± ¡°We have a healthy relationship with the Chinese government and they are an important trading partner,¡± Marape said.?
On the other hand, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning hinting at the U.S.-PNG defence pact, commented, ¡°What we need to be vigilant about is engaging in geopolitical games in the name of cooperation, and we also believe that no cooperation should target any third parties.¡±
China¡¯s intent and drive to create alternative regional architectures has woken up Washington and its like-minded partners to counteract the same. However, many partners of the United States such as India would not necessarily play the game of great power camps, and this is where Delhi enters as a valuable actor in crrafting Pacific regionalism.?
Delhi¡¯s voice is one of growth and development focussed on understanding the region¡¯s priorities, which include climate change and health. India has been at the forefront of providing Humanitarian Assistance and Disaster Relief (HADR) to Pacific Island Countries (PICs) and became a major partner to these nations in fighting the COVID-19 pandemic. Moreover, Delhi assured support in sustainable development, science and technology and space application.?
Echoing concerns of the geopolitical fallout, Prime Minister Marape, urged Delhi to be the voice of global South in the high table of multilateral platforms, and said, ¡°We are victims of global power play and we want you to be an advocate for us and sit in those meetings.¡± While countries in different geopolitical regions are wary of Beijing¡¯s belligerence and are welcoming of Washington¡¯s leadership, they at the same time, show hesitance to pick sides between the U.S. and China. In this context, the U.S. and its traditional allies, with their own China dilemmas to deal with, need to work together with more independent powers like India to help navigate the grey shades of 21st century geopolitics.?
*The Author is a Strategic Analyst based in India and the Honorary Director of the Kalinga Institute of Indo-Pacific Studies (KIIPS). He is a regular commentator on International Affairs and India¡¯s Foreign Policy.