Omicron Is Less Severe But Still Dangerous: Here's Why You Shouldn't Take It Lightly
With the number of fresh Covid-19 cases going up by 10 times from what it was at the beginning of the month across India, experts have said the number of cases will see an increase in the next couple of months due to the Omicron variant of the coronavirus, with the peak likely to be attained in February.
The total count of the highly transmissible coronavirus variant Omicron has reached 781 in India. The variant of concern that was first detected in South Africa in November has now spread to 21 states in the country.
Delhi has the highest Omicron count with 238 cases, followed by Maharashtra with 167 cases. In total, India reported 9,195 fresh COVID-19 cases in the last 24 hours, 44 per cent higher than yesterday's 6,358 cases.
Is Omicron good or bad?
But there's a debate looming, if we should take Omicron seriously or not? Globally, Omicron is becoming the most frustrating good news/bad news story of the moment. As we learn more about the coronavirus variant, the information and the risk it poses keeps changing. That is to be expected with any novel disease of course, but it is enough to put anyone¡¯s head in a spin.
Good: Less likelihood of being hospitalised
First, the good news: An Imperial College London study has backed up what South African medical fraternity has been saying since they broke the news in November, that there is much less likelihood of being hospitalised with an Omicron infection than from Delta.The study looked at 3,25,000 people who tested positive for COVID-19 via an RT- PCR test in England between December 1 and 14 ¨C 56,000 cases of Omicron and 2,69,000 cases of Delta.
It found that the risk of needing any hospital treatment was down by 20-25 percent with Omicron compared with Delta, but the need for an overnight hospital stay was down by 40-45 percent. For those included in the study who had not had the vaccine or previous infection, the risk of hospitalisation was about 11 percent lower for Omicron versus Delta.
Good news this may all be, but it is probably not yet time to rest on our laurels.
Bad: Cases rising faster than we thought
Which brings us to the bad news: Omicron cases have been rising across the world, far faster than initially understood. The United States and the United Kingdom are reporting record daily cases, with cities like London and New York worst affected.
The risk posed by the Omicron variant is still "very high", the World Health Organisation (WHO) said today, after COVID-19 case numbers shot up by 11 per cent globally last week. Omicron is behind rapid virus spikes in several countries, including those where it has already overtaken the previously dominant Delta variant, the WHO said in its weekly epidemiological update.
Reasons it shouldn't be taken lightly
More transmissible?
Beginning with the wild type virus in China, SARS-CoV-2 swiftly mutated majorly into Alpha, Beta, Gamma and Delta strains, besides many others. The current variant in circulation around the globe is the Omicron variant -- touted as more transmissible than all other variants and with the potential of evading treatment.
In barely a month, the variant, with more than 30 mutations in its spike protein, has spread to over 100 countries as well as outpaced the Delta variant in many nations, including the US, the UK, Portugal and Ireland to become the dominant strain.
"The emergence of the Omicron variant shows that the virus is not done just yet," Shahid Jameel, visiting professor at Ashoka University, told IANS.
Heading towards becoming an endemic?
At the same time, Omicron also "shows that the virus is going towards increased transmission and milder disease. This is an indication of heading towards becoming an endemic," added Jameel, who is also a senior research fellow at Green Templeton College, Oxford University.?
According to Pavithra Venkatagopalan, Director, Covid Task Force, Rotary Club of Madras Next Gen, going forward the pandemic will transform into an epidemic, like flu, requiring annual shots.
"It is likely that Covid-19 is well in course to be a seasonal disease, with periodic yearly surges around the globe and the world reacting to the same with an annual shot of vaccine to prevent the burden of disease among the population, much like that of seasonal influenza," Kiran G. Kulirankal, infectious disease physician, Amrita Hospital, Kochi, told IANS.
Dependency on vaccination high
While according to Kulirankal, the disease is unlikely to be "wiped out from the face of the earth permanently", an end to the pandemic also depends on vaccination rates across the world.
In such a scenario, Jameel predicts that "infection spikes will continue across the world, including in India" in 2022."We will have to continue to protect ourselves using a mix of vaccines, masks, avoiding crowded indoor spaces, etc."
Nevertheless, the world seems to be better prepared than what it was during the Delta and other outbreaks. Besides several vaccines -- both jabs and nasal sprays -- there are booster doses; antibody therapies as well as the recent anti-Covid pills by US drug makers Merck and Pfizer which are well able to deter the onslaught of yet another wave or variant of Covid-19.
However, only time will tell whether the virus will outplay human efforts or humans will learn to live with it.? ??
