Looming El Nino Could Delay Upcoming Monsoons, Reduce Rainfall This Year
With just days to go for the annual monsoon to hit the Kerala coast, there are growing concerns that the rains might be delayed this year.
The annual monsoon season starts on June 1 in Kerala, from where it progresses to the rest of the country.
Monsoon to miss date with Kerala
But this year, it is predicted to be delayed by at least four or five days.
According to the forecast by The Weather Company, the southwest monsoon season isn¡¯t just likely to arrive slightly later than predicted, but its overall performance could also be more subdued than what was previously thought.
It also suggested that the expected rainfall this year has also reduced to around 90% of the long-period average, translating to 78.3 cm.
Earlier, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) had also said that it expects monsoon to arrive over Kerala on June 4, albeit with a model error of ¡À 4 days.
The El Nino factor
TWC has pointed out the possible formation of El Ni?o in June for its revised outlook, which could mean bad news for India.
While El Ni?o is all but confirmed to occur this year, many climate models indicate that the phase could commence as early as June. There is a growing consensus among models now that this is more likely than the April forecast, so it is expected to affect monsoon rainfall throughout the season. In fact, the US NOAA's Climate Prediction Center says there is a 90% chance that El Ni?o will form by June.
El Ni?o, which in the past has been linked with drier-than-normal southwest monsoon seasons over the Indian subcontinent and another spell of such conditions could be bad for the Indian economy.
El Nino is the large-scale warming of surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific oceans. The weather phenomenon typically occurs every two to seven years.
El Nino is bad for India's agriculture sector
A shortage in rainfall can also severely hit the country's large agriculture sector, which is heavily dependent on the monsoons.
Last week, a report by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) of the United Nations had said that the five years between 2023-27 could be the?hottest five years?the world has seen.
It had said that a combination of?global warming?and the likelihood of the formation of?El Ni?o/Southern Oscillation?may push global temperatures to new highs.
El Nino to cost global economy $3 trillion
A recent study published in the journal Science has warned that El Nino can lead to severe heat waves and droughts in many countries, including India, and could take a $3 trillion toll on the global economy.
"The deck is potentially stacked for a really big El Nino. Our results suggest that there will likely be a major economic toll that depresses economic growth in tropical countries for potentially up to a decade," said Christopher Callahan, a doctoral candidate at Dartmouth College in the US.
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