For the first time ever, India has more women than men, found a survey, bringing hope and cheer and a pat on the back for government policies that led to this remarkable achievement.
Also, for the first time in history, the country isn't recording a population boom, indicating significant societal shifts.
The fifth National Family and Health Survey (NFHS) carried out by the government between 2019 and 2021 has found India now has 1,020 women for every 1,000 men.
The survey of about 6,50,000 households also found that India¡¯s reproductive rate had dropped to an average of 2, which is the first time it has been below replacement fertility levels. In urban areas, it was even lower at 1.6.
India's swing towards a predominantly female population is also a momentous moment for the country which for centuries has been one of ¡°missing women¡± hotbeds, referring to the millions of girls killed before or just after being born due to a societal stigma to giving birth to a daughter.?
The numbers have made headlines in the country. The health ministry said this was the first time ever that the female population had surpassed the male population in India. One official said this was due to the "measures taken by the government for women's empowerment".
Some reports hailed it as a massive achievement and a "demographic shift."
But the numbers do not add up.
On the surface, the data is everything that puts the spotlight on government programmes to bridge the skewed sex ratio.
But digging deeper, shows how the surface reality might just be less than half true.?
Firstly, the data surveys nearly 6,50,000 households out of India's 300 million households. This is only 0.21 per cent of the total households in the country, a below marginal representation of the population.
The interpretation of the data itself becomes skewed when taking into account an almost significant number of surveyed households.
The NFHS-5 report has itself advised caution. ¡°Readers should be cautious while interpreting and comparing the trends as some states and Union territories may have smaller sample sizes,¡± it said.
The real picture can only come out once the census data is in, since it surveys the entire population of the country, and, therefore provides a more accurate account of the overall sex ratio.
Some researchers say that the census has repeatedly shown that there have been more men in India than women, so in all likelihood, this data isn't a true representation of said "societal shift."
The Economic Survey 2017-18 revealed that Indian parents, still keen to have more and more male children, continue producing ¡°until they have the desired number of sons¡±.?
The survey called this phenomenon the son meta-preference, which involves parents adopting "fertility-stopping rules¡±, or having children until the desired number of sons are born.
Despite social media campaigns and government-sponsored awareness programmes to promote gender equality, the preference for sons continues to be strong.
The Economic Survey, in its first-ever estimate of the number of ¡®unwanted girls¡¯, has said that India could have as many as 21 million ¡®unwanted girls.¡¯ i.e., girls whose parents instead wanted to have sons.
The survey, drafted by chief economic adviser Arvind Subramanian and his team, observed, ¡°Families that have sons are more likely to stop having children than families where a girl is born. This is suggestive of parents having children until they have as many sons as they want¡±.
The number has been arrived at by looking at the sex ratio of the last child (SRLC) which is heavily skewed in favour of boys.
Punjab and Haryana showed extremely high son preferences and son meta preferences.
The data might look promising and paint a remarkable picture of saving the girl child movement, but it is only half true. Overlooking the contributors and the history of meta son-preference will be similar to living in a fool¡¯s paradise.
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