The recent ceasefire between Israel and Iran, brokered under US President Donald Trump, appears to be holding, despite minor disruptions. As the immediate threat subsides, Middle Eastern countries are reevaluating their diplomatic strategies and regional alignments in light of the conflict＊s impact.
One theme is consistent across the region: the attempt to maintain a delicate balance in public positions and behind-the-scenes actions, particularly concerning both Israel and Iran.
Several Arab and Muslim-majority countries, including Jordan and Saudi Arabia, condemned Israeli attacks in a joint statement. However, these same countries reportedly took covert actions that benefitted Israel. Jordan＊s air force blocked Iranian drones and rockets from crossing its airspace, citing civilian protection. Saudi Arabia is believed to have allowed Israeli aircraft through its airspace and possibly even intercepted Iranian missiles directly〞though this remains unverified.
Both countries have long-standing military ties with the US and receive significant financial or security support. Jordan alone gets $1.45 billion annually in US foreign aid, making it one of the top recipients globally. Despite public criticism of Israel, both Jordan and Saudi Arabia remain cautious not to strain ties with Washington or Tel Aviv.
Regional actors like the Gulf states and Egypt appear to be positioning themselves for long-term stability. Analyst Simon Wolfgang Fuchs suggests that although Iran＊s regional influence has weakened〞especially with the decline of its proxies like Hezbollah and shifts in Syria〞Gulf nations still view Iran as a key actor, not one to be further destabilized.
Egypt＊s role has also drawn attention. While backing the ceasefire and calling for diplomacy, Cairo suppressed pro-Palestinian marches, including detaining activists in Ismailia. Egypt, receiving around $1.3 billion in US military aid, remains cautious about endangering its US ties, particularly under the current administration.
Some countries in the region may actually prefer the current Iranian regime to remain intact. As Marcus Schneider from the Friedrich Ebert Foundation notes, there is little organized internal opposition to the Iranian government, and exiled groups such as monarchists and the People＊s Mujahedin lack widespread support.
Schneider warns that a weakened Iran is manageable, but a desperate one could behave unpredictably. Fuchs adds that President Trump＊s unpredictable foreign policy, especially his use of social media, is disrupting traditional alliances and priorities. He believes that US focus may drift away from the Middle East entirely, except in relation to Israel and Iran.
As the guns fall silent, Middle Eastern countries are left navigating a fragile web of diplomacy, security interests, and US influence.
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