Predicting earthquakes with accuracy remains a giant scientific task, but researchers think that artificial intelligence (AI) may be used to predict earthquakes. By studying large data sets of seismic activity, AI can identify patterns to figure out where an earthquake might strike.
Researchers at the University of Texas (UT) at Austin tested an AI algorithm that managed to accurately predict 70% of earthquakes a week before they happened. The trials for this AI took place during a seven-month period in China, and scientists think a robust AI system could accurately predict earthquakes.
"Predicting earthquakes is the holy grail," said Sergey Fomel, a member of the research team. "We¡¯re not yet close to making predictions for anywhere in the world, but what we achieved tells us that what we thought was an impossible problem is solvable in principle," Fomel added.
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The AI system was able to predict the location of 14 earthquakes within 321 kilometres of where they actually struck, and how intensely they hit. This AI algorithm only flagged eight false warnings and missed one earthquake.
70% might not seem like a lot on paper, but alternate systems for predicting earthquakes simply do not exist. Even with 70%, researchers think major economic and human losses can be avoided and earthquake preparedness improved worldwide.
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Now, researchers want to try their model in regions with high earthquake probability like Italy, Japan, Greece, Turkey, and California in the US. This way, the AI algorithm will get better at predicting earthquakes - as AI models depend on large data models to become more accurate.
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