Recent changes to the climate targets promised by major countries around the world will drive down the projected global warming by 0.2C by the end of the century--bringing the world a little closer to a more stable climate--analysts suggest.
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Even as this commitment brings down the forecast to 2.4C, it is still substantially above the 1.5C threshold that governments are aiming for under the international Paris climate agreement, to avoid the most severe impacts of climate change.
Final calculations made by the researchers estimated that the new targets have narrowed the gap between the emissions cuts needed by 2030 to put the world on track to curb global warming to 1.5C and what countries have pledged to deliver by 11-14 per cent--but there¡¯s still a long way to go.
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¡°It is clear the Paris Agreement is driving change, spurring governments into adopting stronger targets, but there is still some way to go, especially given that most governments don¡¯t yet have policies in place to meet their pledges,¡± Bill Hare, chief executive of Climate Analytics and one of the partner organisations for the report, said in a statement.
¡°Our warming estimate from current policies is 2.9C--still nearly twice what it should be, and governments must urgently step up their action,¡± he added.
The assessment made by Climate Action Tracker (CAT) says that in an ¡°optimistic scenario¡± where countries completely deliver on their promises to cut emissions to net zero by around mid-century, global heating could be limited to 2C by the end of the century.
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The report mentioned that while the number of countries adopting or considering net zero targets has risen to 131, covering three-fourth of global pollution, it is the updated Paris Agreement 2030 targets, rather than the additional countries, that contribute the most to the drop in projected warming.
Researchers said that only 40 per cent of the countries that have ratified the Paris Agreement, representing about half global emissions and about a third of the global population, have submitted updated ¡®nationally determined contributions¡¯ (NDCs).
¡°The wave towards net zero greenhouse gas emissions is unstoppable. The long-term intentions are good,¡± Niklas H?hne of New Climate Institute, the second report partner, said.?
¡°But only if all governments flip into emergency mode and propose and implement more short-term action, global emissions can still be halved in the next 10 years as required by the Paris Agreement.¡±
Scientists warn that temperature over 1.5C will lead to more heatwaves, rising seas, water shortages and drought, risks to human health, livelihoods, food security, loss of species and biome shifts.