Govt Targets 60 To 70 Lakh EV, Hybrid Sales By 2020; Ambitious Or Wishful Thinking?

India began working on the electrification of its transport means through the FAME scheme. With the FAME-II the union government furthered the efforts, with 10 times the budget allotted for the transition in the second phase. While the plan was to have 30% of India¡¯s transport running on electric drive trains by 2030, there is an immediate and intermediate target now. Under its National Electric Mobility Mission Plan (NEMMP), the government now aims to deploy 6 to 7 million hybrid and electric vehicles in the country by 2020.

For those unaware, NEMMP 2020 is a national mission document aimed at increasing the adoption of electric vehicles and their manufacturing in India. The plan is supposed to play a key role in taking off India¡¯s dependence on fuel imports from other countries for its transportation. In addition, the increased use of electric vehicles will also bring down the alarming levels of air pollution in major Indian cities.

The new formed target for the NEMMP 2020 was recently forwarded by Union Heavy Industries and Public Enterprises Minister Arvind Sawant in a written reply in the Rajya Sabha. The reply mentioned "under the NEMMP 2020, there is an ambitious target to achieve 6-7 million sales of hybrid and electric vehicles by the year 2020."

(Representative Image: Reuters)

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A crystal clear goal?

Not exactly. While the desired sales number has been mentioned under the new target, there has been no mention as to how this goal will be achieved. Also, the target does not define whether the number mentioned is for a particular category of vehicles or encompasses any and every electric vehicle. Do note that some of these electric vehicles will not contribute towards the bigger causes, i.e. lessening the fuel imports or cutting down on emissions, like electric rickshaws.

Interestingly enough, the ambitious target has been announced when the automobile industry is experiencing a consistent downfall in its sales since the past couple of years. The EV industry has seen a growth in sales, electric two-wheelers even more so. But even with the cumulative sales of two-wheelers (1,26,000), electric three-wheelers (6,30,000) and electric passenger vehicles (3,600), the total count crossed the 7.5 lakh units mark in FY2019, a mere figure in comparison with the target.

Far fetched?

At the time, the target seems to be nothing but a distant dream. With the industry crossing 7.5 lakh units mark in FY2019, the government needs around 5.25 million more EVs to be sold within a period of less than 2 years.

Let us say that such a rapid increase in EV adoption happens, which is next to impossible in the first place, how will the transport be powered then? India currently misses out on a considerable network of EV charging stations, so that rules out the practicality of running an electric car or a bike dependent on fast chargers. The left out vehicles like electric three-wheelers or low capacity electric two-wheelers will eventually need a battery swapping system in place to operate, i.e. those supported by such a measure. The rest will again be dependent on a charging system.

(Representative Image: Reuters)

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The efforts

There is no doubt that the Indian government is making consistent efforts to increase the use of electric vehicles in India. Under the recently announced budget 2019, the Finance Minister announced a reduction of tax on electric vehicles to 5%, down from the earlier 12%. In addition, the minister also announced a tax redemption of up to Rs 1.5 lakh in loan interest to those opting for an electric vehicle. There are several such benefits in place for those planning to buy an EV next.

On the industry front, the government has been doling out tax benefits for the companies manufacturing EVs in India as well as those involved in setting up an EV charging infrastructure in the country.

So while there is no denying that such measures have been placed to ensure a smooth transition to EVs, a target of 6 to 7 million EVs and hybrids to be sold in a period of less than two years seems to be just an over ambitious claim than a well thought of move.

(With inputs from PTI)