Are Indian Cities At Risk Of Massive Earthquake Like T邦rkiye? Here's The Answer

Syria and T邦rkiye have suffered a catastrophic earthquake. More than 20,000 people have been reportedly killed while thousands more have been injured and displaced. As per seismologists 每 researchers who study earthquakes 每 the twin Mediterranean countries were struck by an earthquake of at least a magnitude of 7.8 on the Richter scale.

AFP

While India is praying and sending aid to the affected people, an even more devastating earthquake might be waiting to cause destruction here. This earthquake, seismologists say, will have a magnitude upwards of 8 on the Richter scale and can occur anywhere between Dehradun to Kathmandu, Nepal. Moreover, its wrath can be felt in the entire Gangetic plains and massive Indian cities like Delhi NCR, Shimla, Patna, etc.

But how can seismologists be so sure of this doomsday event?

The tectonic plates that make up the Earth＊s surface keep moving slowly against each other. This movement causes the edges of these plates to collide (at an active fault line) with each other and generate friction, called tectonic tension. When the stress on these edges overpowers the friction, the plates move a great distance in seconds, thus causing earthquakes.

Reuters

Since tectonic tension builds up over a long time before it can be released, it is believed that strong earthquakes follow a ＆seismic cycle＊. For instance, after a region has faced an earthquake of magnitude 7 or higher, it takes decades for another earthquake of a similar size to strike the same location. On the other hand, if a region hasn't seen a sizable earthquake in a while, the likelihood of one occurring is very likely.

As per the United States Geological Survey, accurately predicting earthquakes is nearly impossible. This is because geologists are still limited to studying the Earth＊s surface and haven＊t been able to study the planet＊s crust, where the earthquakes originate, which is around a hundred kilometres below the surface.

However, seismologists can make calculated guesses based on probability and larger geological patterns. It is by studying such patterns in the Himalayan Mountain ranges that seismologists Roger Bilham and K Khatri predicted the Great Himalayan Earthquake. The two scientists were able to identify a seismic gap 每 the region where tectonic tension builds up because no earthquakes have occurred 每 in the central Himalayan region.

As per the researchers, the Indian tectonic plate is moving along a significant fault beneath the Himalayas at a rate of around 1.8 centimetres per year. The absence of a massive earthquake in the central Himalayas in recorded history provides strong evidence that a significant amount of tectonic tension has built up in this region and is ready to be released.

According to seismologists, the Himalayas have not seen an earthquake over the magnitude of eight in over five hundred years. This has led to the accumulation of great amounts of strain between the Eurasian plate and the Indian plate. The last major earthquake in the Himalayan belt was the 2015 Nepal earthquake (7.3 M) which killed over 8,900 people preceded by the 2005 earthquake in Jammu and Kashmir (7.6 M) which took 87,000 lives. However, these weren＊t enough to release the seismic stress.

2005 earthquake in jammu and kashmir | AP

Therefore, as per Bilham and many other seismologists, the Great Himalayan Earthquake is inevitable. However, the exact date, as well as the epicentre of this earthquake, is still unknown. So, this earthquake can strike us tomorrow, the next year or after a hundred years, no one can predict for sure. Moreover, while the central Himalayan region will be the most probable centre of the earthquake, the specific location is still unknown and seismologists can only take an educated guess.

Independent India＊s only earthquake that exceeded the figure eight on the Richter scale was the 1950 Assam earthquake. With a magnitude of 8.6, it is the strongest earthquake ever recorded on land. The quake not only killed over 4,800 people but also caused the blocking of several tributaries of Brahmaputra due to massive landslides.

While there is no need to panic as of now, being prepared for such an event is always helpful. As per the Earthquake Disaster Risk Index report published by the National Disaster Management Authority, around 59% of India's total landmass is vulnerable to earthquakes.

Additionally, Indian cities like Delhi, Dehradun and Shimla are severely unprepared to face such a calamity due to unplanned expansion and regular flouting of safety norms. Despite Delhi High Court＊s several interventions, the city＊s civic authorities have been slow and negligent in implementing relevant safety norms.