Explained: What Is China's 'Zero-Covid Policy' And Why It Seems To Be Failing

Since the initial COVID-19 outbreak in Wuhan in early 2020, China has seen its worst outbreak, with daily recorded cases reaching over 3,500. Despite the fact that this number is insignificant in comparison to the worldwide Omicron outbreak, numerous Chinese cities have been put under lockdown as a result of the outbreak.

Faced with an increase of positive cases, the Chinese government has chosen to enforce its draconian zero-COVID policy even more strictly. Vice Premier Sun Chunlan, the chief coordinator of China's COVID-19 response, announced during a State Council meeting in March that China will maintain its zero-COVID policy "without hesitation." As a result, local authorities must approach the policy as "a primary political duty" and "a national priority."

What is China's 'Zero Covid' policy?

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Zero-COVID is a public health policy that stresses the use of contact monitoring, border restrictions, mass screening, and periodic lockdowns to effectively shut down all avenues for a virus like COVID to propagate.

It's an "elimination" technique, not a "mitigation" strategy like coping with COVID. The goal is to reduce active cases to zero as much as possible. Experts believe that the zero-COVID method induces the maximum disruption in the affairs of individuals who are exposed to such processes due to the sheer measures utilised and the policy's focus, since suppressive measures are used frequently and harshly.

Though various countries have experimented with the zero-COVID policy to different degrees, only a small number of nations continue to do so, with China being the most significant one.

Current situation in China

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According to reports, to execute the zero-COVID policy, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has enlisted all of the current societal forces. President Xi Jinping has often emphasised the importance of "people's warfare" in the fight against the virus, emphasising the importance of mobilisation in China's pandemic response.

According to scholars like Kevin J. O'Brien, the Chinese regime is responsibility-driven, which means local authorities function under the cadre responsibility system. The cadre responsibility system assesses local cadres' performance based on their achievement of policy objectives.

During mobilisation, the top leadership's mission takes precedence over all policy objectives under the cadre responsibility structure. The task of preventing a COVID-19 epidemic currently outweighs the imperative of economic growth, which is generally the most crucial policy goal in the cadre responsible system, under the current zero-COVID policy.

Task-driven system

This task-driven system, according to experts, reflects the central government's inability to tightly monitor every local government. Beijing is unable to monitor all aspects of local policy execution. As a result, the central government employs task-driven mobilisation to assure that all local governments produce the same outcome. The task-driven mobilization's outcome-focused orientation encourages policy innovation based on local circumstances, expert notes.

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According to The Diplomat, China's zero-COVID policy indicates that local cadres have some discretion in completing tasks. Local authorities are free to employ whatever approach as long as an outbreak is avoided. As a result, the zero-COVID policy as it stands represents a rural-urban divide. The same report claims that the zero-COVID policy was executed to the nth degree in all municipalities; nevertheless, officials in urban and rural areas chose varied implementation techniques.

Why do experts believe the zero-COVID strategy would fail in the long run

While proponents of zero-COVID might refer to a certain limited data suggesting that this method results in reduced death rates and a lesser long-term economic burden, most experts question the viability of eradicating an outbreak in such a harsh manner.

With more contagious COVID variations like Delta and Omicron on the rise, most experts believe that employing zero-COVID is like playing the game of whack-a-mole that can't be controlled for long.

"Trying to halt Omicron is like an effort to prevent the wind," Dr. Michael Osterholm, director of the Centre for Infectious Disease Research and Policy, told CNBC. Furthermore, zero-COVID does not reflect COVID's prospects in 2022. With widespread immunisation and reports that the Omicron variety causes fewer hospitalizations, the focus is turning away from simply counting cases, he added.

Experts note that the argument opposing zero-COVID now turns out that, just as containment measures cannot eliminate flu, the common cold, and other endemic diseases, COVID cannot be eliminated either.

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According to reports, the zero-COVID policy and widespread lockdowns have had a significant impact on the lives of ordinary Chinese individuals. According to estimates, more than 4.5 million small enterprises closed in 2020, with the figure likely to be greater in 2021.

The human costs of a COVID-free approach are likely to be higher as well. In 2021, China's mortality rate increased to 7.18 fatalities per 1,000 people, the highest level since 2000. In comparison to 2020, this has resulted in approximately 160,000 extra deaths.

Why does China insist on a COVID-free policy

The deployment of such a method has been met with growing scepticism by the international medical community. China has allegedly praised its zero-COVID policy as a more "humane" approach that values all lives equally.

Living with COVID, on the other hand, has been dubbed a type of 'Social Darwinism,' in which vulnerable populations are effectively 'allowed to be exterminated' as a necessary cost of managing with the virus. Analysts claim that using zero-COVID is a source of pride since it demonstrates a conviction in the basic value of all human life, rather than just a majority of it.

Experts say China is exercising its political dominance by enforcing a zero-COVID policy on Hong Kong. Forcing Hong Kong, historically a western gateway to China, to adopt a zero-COVID policy is just as much about Beijing asserting control over the previously semi-autonomous region as it is about any public health policy.

While China openly allows Hong Kong to define its own COVID standards, observers have highlighted that Beijing and Chinese state media exert tremendous persuasive pressure on Hong Kong's leaders to fall in line and abandon western notions such as living with COVID.

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