Forecasting U.S.-China Relations In 2023: Towards Regulated Competition And Leveraged Cooperation

No bilateral relationship comes close to be being as consequential as the one between the United States and China, for the international system. From the growing volatility in their military power projection in the waters of the Indo-Pacific to the uncertainties in their economic dynamics, the relationship is indispensable in how major partners of the United States or China orient their national security and economic strategies.

The tension in the relationship has skyrocketed in recent times, most particularly on the Taiwan issue, and competition is palpable on both military and non-military dimensions, even as both sides advocate the need for cooperative behaviours on transnational challenges such as climate change.

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As the results of the U.S. mid-term congressional elections lend more continuity to Biden¡¯s foreign policy agenda and President Xi Jinping consolidates power amidst domestic challenges, what transpires in this bilateral relationship will affect many bilateral as well as multilateral arrangements across the world.

The Boiling Point in U.S.-China Tension

What brings the U.S.-China tension to a boil? Essentially, the bilateral dynamics between the United States and its primary challenger has come to a precipice, from where it can either go towards open confrontation or else, Washington and Beijing could work out a more negotiated arrangement of regulated competition and leveraged cooperation. In Washington as well as Beijing, there is more vocal recognition of the strategic threats that both sides pose to each other.

The U.S. national security strategy contends that China ¡°is the only competitor with both the intent to reshape the international order and, increasingly, the economic, diplomatic, military, and technological power to advance that objective.¡± President Xi speaking at the 20th Party Congress, said, ¡°A new round of scientific and technological revolution and industrial transformation is well under way, and a significant shift is taking place in the international balance of power, presenting China with strategic opportunities in pursuing development.¡± Taiwan which is a core contentious issue in U.S.-China relationship, has emerged as the primary geopolitical hotspot and testing ground for the unfolding great power tussle between the United States and its ¡°near peer competitor¡± China. China¡¯s assertive resolve for re-unification and ¡°One China Policy¡± will continue to test America¡¯s mettle to extend deterrence to its allies in Asia, and amidst calls for a ¡°free and open¡± Indo-Pacific, the redlines of confrontation will continue to be redrawn.

The World is Not Enough

China¡¯s growing assertiveness and power hubris is brushing a number of countries in the region and beyond, the wrong way. Despite their own economic interdependence with China, America¡¯s trans-Atlantic and trans-Pacific partners are wary of China¡¯s behaviour, and are open to establish strategic alignments with an aim to counteract China¡¯s strategic rise, as seen in formations like the Quad and the AUKUS.

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The growing strategic embrace between China and Russia, as a response to their respective concerns with the U.S. and its allies, adds more complexities to the emerging permutations and combinations.

While regional security environments across oceans hardly impinge on each other, Russia¡¯s invasion of Ukraine besides upending the European security order has raised concerns over the future of aggression and use of force by China in the Indo-Pacific region. Moreover, a number of countries, including America¡¯s European allies, show a penchant for maintaining their independent assessments of dealing with Beijing, despite their overarching strategic alignment with the United States. Therefore, despite calls for diversifying the China-centric global supply chains, and major U.S. corporations scouting for alternative manufacturing locations, most European and Asian economies still find the idea of decoupling China highly abstract.

The U.S.-China competition has become multi-dimensional and stands manifested across multiple geopolitical regions of the world. From conventional areas of military modernization to the new technological race including the realm of Artificial Intelligence, the developments between these two countries will have consequence in how a number of countries view agenda setting and global governance.

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The international landscape amidst this dynamic balance of power is more uncertain than ever, incubating the strategic ramifications of inter-state dynamics and the influence of non-state actors in a world order that is neither bipolar nor unipolar yet not entirely multipolar as well. The United States still commands pre-eminence in the global scheme of things and possesses a network of alliances and partners that would be the envy of any challenger.

However, at the same time, it is undeniable that America¡¯s role as a security guarantor and leader of global governance is under the highest scrutiny since the end of World War II. The security and financial order that it has been spearheading is weakening while the features of a new order and a new leader are still highly uncertain. In this midst, China¡¯s economic and military rise has been unmistakable but President Xi despite his iron grip on Chinese power still confronts daunting domestic and foreign challenges. The U.S.-China relationship at present seems mostly competitive, occasionally confrontational and barely cooperative. How Washington and Beijing will handle this complex bilateral relationship and how other major powers will deal with the consequences will determine the contours of 21st century international relations.

*The Author teaches at the Amity Institute of International Studies (AIIS), Amity University, Noida and is the Honorary Director of the Kalinga Institute of Indo-Pacific Studies (KIIPS). The views expressed are author's own.