The G20 Presidency And India¡¯s Moment Of Reckoning: More Than The Sum Of Its Parts

With much fanfare and hope of new leadership, India has taken over the presidency of the G20, from Indonesia. The opportunity to shape the group¡¯s agenda and hence multilateral governance at the global high table comes at a point of inflection.

Amidst the uncertainties spanning across the security and economic landscape, the future of effective multilateralism hangs in the balance.

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The outbreak of the global pandemic and Russia¡¯s invasion of Ukraine have most significantly affected multilateral decision-making. India¡¯s own penchant to practice its strategic autonomy while aspiring an increase in global and regional influence will be the north star of India¡¯s strategy at the G20.

In the midst of transformative geopolitical, geo-economic and technological changes, India¡¯s call for inclusiveness and multilateral diplomacy will be put to the test. How national resources can be aligned in the face of diverse national strategies, to find global solutions will remain the primary task of G20.

Issue Based Vs Value Based

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India¡¯s G20 presidency also comes at an inflection point in great power dynamics. More than ever, the tension between the United States and China has heightened over one of the most volatile flashpoints in the Indo-Pacific, the Taiwan question.

The release of the latest National Security Strategy (NSS) and the National Defense Strategy (NDS) of the Biden administration reflect an acute shift towards a battle of the ideas, some sort of an emerging showdown between democracies and autocracies.

While transnational challenges like the threats from climate change, health security and technological governance would require a multilateral approach and more importantly, a habit of cooperation among the major powers of the world, geopolitical rivalries are potent enough to put speed breakers, if not entirely derail the prospects of coordination.

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Despite the inevitability of economic interdependence, China¡¯s aggression and territorial transgression have dampened the huge bilateral and multilateral prospects of India-China cooperation.

India and China are undoubtedly the two most consequential powers in Asia, and the nature of their growth and challenges are intertwined with finding solutions to transnational challenges.

From handling economic shifts to issues of demography, from challenges of urbanisation to battling climate change and energy crisis, India has an opportunity to shape the course of the global rules of road, and in this pursuit, India¡¯s diplomatic toolkits will be required to ensure inclusiveness and to redirect the global narratives from conflict to cooperation.

The Perilous Road to Global Consensus

The G20 declaration at Bali contended, ¡°At today¡¯s critical moment for the global economy, it is essential that the G20 undertakes tangible, precise, swift and necessary actions, using all available policy tools, to address common challenges.¡±

The G20 by the share combined forces that it accumulates in terms of global GDP, world population and global trade figures remains the primary platform for multilateralism to find its true purpose amid global challenges amidst a growing great power rivalry.

While the lure of multilateralism as the antidote to major transnational issues is apparent, countries often in times of adversities turn insular and resort to protectionist approach, undoing the forces of globalisation.

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Prime Minister Narendra Modi¡¯s call to act together to resolve today¡¯s challenges and put an end to the era of war has reverberated widely. "Today, we do not need to fight for our survival - our era need not be one of war. Indeed, it must not be one," he said.

The question remains: What will India bring to the table, during its G20 presidency? What will be the ¡°India Way¡±, and what are the best practices that will mark India¡¯s tenure at the global high table? The Indian Prime Minister proclaimed that India¡¯s G20 presidency will be ¡°inclusive, ambitious, decisive, and action-oriented.¡±

Stitching together a feasible global consensus on matters of global concern has been the story of modern diplomacy, across the spectrum of issue areas.

How to provide incentives for cooperation and make aggression or non-cooperative behaviour costly has been the primary agenda of international negotiation. But then, past negotiations and international agreements have often been accused of creating divisions in the world, rather than promoting multilateral interests.

Those with greater capabilities have often manipulated multilateral platforms for parochial interests guided by thirst for power, and to shape the world in terms of their own narrow national interest.

Now, the world stands at the cusp of transition, from the old to the new order. But, as with any period of great transition, the era is filled with uncertainties and unknowns. While questions are raised on how the old order has failed to deliver, the promise of the new order is not truly realised or recognised yet.

The biggest challenge for India, will therefore, remain the formidable task of aligning national, regional and global strategies and making the G20 truly count for more than the sum of its parts.

The Author teaches at the Amity Institute of International Studies, Amity University (Noida). He also is the Honorary Director of the Kalinga Institute of Indo-Pacific Studies (KIIPS). The views expressed are author's own.