COVID In India May Be Entering Stage of 'Endemicity', Says WHO's Chief Scientist: What It Means

Covid-19 in India may be entering some kind of stage of endemicity where there is low or moderate level of transmission going on, Chief Scientist of the World Health Organisation Dr Soumya Swaminathan said.

The endemic stage is when a population learns to live with a virus. It¡¯s very different from the epidemic stage when the virus overwhelms a population.

What it means for India?

¡°As far as India is concerned that seems to be what is happening and because of size of India and heterogeneity of population and immunity status in different parts of country in different pockets, it is very very feasible that the situation may continue like this with ups and downs in different parts of the country, particularly where there are more susceptible population, so those groups who were perhaps less affected by first and second waves or those areas with low levels of vaccine coverage we could see peaks and troughs for the next several months," she said.

Reuters

She said she hopes that by the end of 2022 ¡°we would be in that position that we have achieved vaccine coverage, say 70 per cent, and then countries can get back to normal¡±.

What's an endemic?

An endemic is a disease that is consistently present but limited to a particular area. This means that the disease spread and rate of illness is predictable, according to Columbia University¡¯s Mailman School of Public Health.

An example of an endemic virus in the US that remains in the population at a low frequency is the seasonal flu. According to WHO¡¯s Chief Scientist Dr Soumya Swaminathan, the endemic stage is when a population learns to live with a virus. It¡¯s very different from the epidemic stage when the virus overwhelms a population.

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Is Covid now an endemic?

Medical experts now are saying that the Covid-19 pandemic could become the next ¡°endemic¡±. Experts have previously said it would be impossible for the U.S. to reach ¡°true herd immunity¡± with Covid-19 as new strains of the virus will continue to develop in the years ahead.

The hope was that vaccines might allow populations to reach a level of herd immunity that would stomp out the virus almost entirely. But, because the delta variant spreads so quickly, most experts think herd immunity is no longer realistic¡ªeven if vaccination rates rose to the levels previously thought necessary, the Quartz said.

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Will it last forever?

Not all countries have given up on the hope of ¡°Covid zero.¡± China, for example, is pursuing a ¡°zero tolerance¡± approach to the virus, with strict lockdowns, contact tracing, testing, and quarantines. Australia, too, has sought to shut out the virus with closed borders, lockdowns, and widespread testing.

The highly contagious delta variant, however, is still managing to penetrate both countries, calling the long-term viability of a zero-Covid strategy into question. While it won¡¯t be the ending to the pandemic we may have hoped for, it will be better than where we¡¯re at now.