Third Wave Of COVID Could Reach Its Peak In Some States This Week: Here Are The Details

A professor from IIT Kanpur suggested that the third wave of Covid-19 is likely to reach its peak in Haryana, Gujarat and Maharashtra this week. He also claimed that the third wave, triggered by the Omicron variant, has reached its peak in Delhi, Mumbai and Kolkata.

Correctly predicted earlier too

Last year, Dr Manindra Agrawal had predicted that the third wave of coronavirus would peak by the end of January. Now, Professor Manindra Agrawal through his Sutra model, predicted that some states will see the peak of COVID-19 third wave this week, while some have already seen it. Agrawal said that COVID-19 is spreading faster in India than projected earlier.

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In a series of tweets, the IIT Professor said, "There appear two plausible reasons for this: 1) there are two groups in the population, one with less immunity against Omicron and the other with more. The mutant first spread in the first group causing a sharp rise. Now the first group is exhausted and so the spread is slower."

He further said, "Second, there was a lot of concern when Omicron started spreading, but in the last week or so, people almost everywhere have concluded that it causes only mild infection and have decided to handle it with standard remedies instead of getting tested."

Bihar: predicted to peak today. Peaking at almost one third value! pic.twitter.com/DzLH7OQx6L

¡ª Manindra Agrawal (@agrawalmanindra) January 16, 2022

The model has always indicated that the fall would also be sharper in cases of sharper rise in a number of cases - it means the number of cases would fall quickly once the country as a whole and cities reach their respective peaks.

PTI

Maharashtra

"In Maharashtra, it is predicted to peak on 19th. May peak sooner since the trajectory is almost flat at present. Gujarat is predicted to peak on the 19th. Haryana is predicted to peak on 20th," he added. He further said that southern states like Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka and Tamil Nadu will see the current wave peak next week.

Karnataka, Andhra

"In Karnataka, the COVID-19 wave is predicted to peak on 23rd. A new phase just started and Tamil Nadu has been predicted to peak on 25th Jan. Trajectory has started deviating. Andhra Pradesh is predicted to peak on the 30th. No deviation yet from the predicted trajectory. Probably because of the spread in at a very early stage," he tweeted.

Twitter

Haryana

"However, Haryana is predicted to peak on the 20th. Now to some states like Assam is predicted to peak on 26th Jan. No phase change yet, but the blue curve is suggesting there will be one soon," he added.

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