Doomsday Clock Is Real. Here Are Seven Things You Didn't Know About It

A board member gives an insider's view into the working of the ominous dial that is watching climate change and nuclear arsenals closely.

Right now, world leaders are meeting in Paris to eke out a consensus on climate change mitigation.

Mean while, a motley group of scientists will be watching the outcome very closely, to adjust the hands of an ominous dial known around the world as the Doomsday Clock.

1. What is the Doomsday Clock?

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In 1945, alarmed by the bomb-drops in Hiroshima and Nagasaki, a group of scientists including many including many who had been involved in the Manhattan Project started a regular Bulletin of Atomic Scientists.

It hit upon a dramatic visual metaphor in 1947 with the Doomsday Clock, meant to show how close we are to Armageddon. It has been called one of the scariest logos in the world.

Since then, their Science and Security Board meets twice a year, along with political scientists and diplomats, to discuss global threats.

Theoretical physicist Ramamurti Rajaraman, emeritus professor at JNU and the only Indian on the board, gave us a peek into the proceedings.

2. Meet the unlikely 'Prophets of Doom'

Jokey and affable, he makes a very unlikely prophet of doom. "There are about 15 people on the board, and there's a large board of spon sors," he says. "There are symposiums and discussions, and finally each of us places a value on the threat level, and a combined consensus is arrived at."

3. Climate change was added to the clock later

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The nuclear threat continues to be serious, but has receded from public consciousness since the days of the clock's founding. Meanwhile, climate change has emerged as a major source of global peril.

The clock's settings now incorporate both dangers. "Of course there is human conflict, terrorism, cyber war and other dangers, but the clock registers only ex istential threats to the planet," says Rajara man.

4. It's not really fair

He admits that conflating nuclear war and climate change into a single index is like comparing apples and oranges. Climate change is not instant annihilation, but a slow spiral into doom. Still, the lessons from nuclear negotiations between the West and the rest have some value for climate change, especially on the question of large climate engineering in terventions, he says.

5. It began at seven minutes to midnight

The placement of the needles is really more art than science. It was started with a reading of seven minutes to midnight. In the 68 years since, the hands have moved backwards and forwards about 20 times. The worst it got was in 1953, after the US and Soviet hydrogen bomb tests, when the clock put the world at two minutes to doom.

"There isn't much room for manoeuvring," says Rajaraman.

In other words, we're always only minutes away from end times.

6. But it's not always accurate

Rajaram remembers discussing the possibility of a quivering needle with chemistry Nobel laureate John Charles Polanyi, because the annually-set clock doesn't capture events resolved in the interim. The Cuban missile crisis, for instance, left the clock entirely unmoved. The Doomsday Clock board could also use some diversity to reflect perceptions from the non-Western world. According to Rajaraman, the Bulle tin is only too aware of the need for globally balanced judgements.

The ticking clock, that most analogue of images, is now online.

7. It was moved to 11:57 recently

This January, the mortal threat of "unchecked climate change" placed it at 11.57. The question is, will the Paris summit take us closer to midnight?