'Future COVID Waves Unlikely To Have Serious Impact On India,' Experts Call Easing Mask Mandate

Amid a resurgence of COVID-19 cases in Southeast Asia and parts of Europe, experts in India feel that given the high vaccination coverage and immunity due to natural infection, any future waves are unlikely to have a major impact in the country.

Some of them even said that the government should consider relaxing the mask mandate as the daily COVID-19 cases and deaths have remained low for a while.

India on Sunday recorded 1,761 fresh COVID-19 cases, the lowest in around 688 days, and 127 deaths. The active cases also declined further to 26,240, according to government data. Dr Sanjay Rai, senior epidemiologist at AIIMS and the principal investigator of Covaxin trials for both adults and children at the institute, said that SARS-CoV-2 is an RNA virus and mutations are bound to occur.

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Already more than 1,000 mutations have occurred, although there are only five variants of concern. ¡°India experienced a very devastating second wave last year, which was very unfortunate, but currently this is our main strength as natural infection provides better and longer duration of protection. Also, there is high vaccination coverage. Hence, severe impact of any future wave is unlikely," Rai, professor at the Centre for Community Medicine at AIIMS, said.

Time to relax mask mandate

¡°It is also time that the Indian government may consider relaxing the mask mandate," he said, adding that senior citizens and those at a higher risk of contracting the infection should continue wearing masks as a precautionary measure. Having said that, Rai emphasised, the government should continue with the SARS-CoV-2 surveillance, including genomic sequencing, to monitor the emergence of any future variant.

According to Dr Chandrakant Lahariya, an epidemiologist and public health specialist, the possibility of a fresh surge in India is low even with a new variant. ¡°If we analyse data on seroprevalence, vaccination coverage and evidence on the spread of Omicron, it is logical to conclude that the COVID-19 epidemic in India is over. For India, the possibility of a fresh surge for many months and even with a new variant is low," he said.

The reason is that because of the hybrid immunity after three waves of natural infection and a large proportion of adults receiving both doses of COVID-19 vaccine, the susceptible pool has come down drastically, Lahariya said. ¡°We know that antibody level declines over a period of time but hybrid immunity continues to provide protection. Moreover, at this stage of the pandemic, infections and new COVID-19 cases are not a concern. The outcome of those infections should be the criteria to assess the situation," he said.

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Lahariya, however, stressed the need for the government to continue tracking situations in other countries, experts to analyse the situation in India, continue genomic surveillance and citizens to get the recommended vaccine shots. ¡°It is also a time that as a society, we prepare for living with Covid," he said. Lahariya further said the time is right to do away with the mask mandate for the majority of the population.

¡°It is also time that the Indian government reviews and revises the face mask-related regulation. The time has come that the mask requirement for the majority of the population can be done away with. It can be done in a graded manner," he stated. Dr Jugal Kishore, head of Community Medicine at Safdarjung Hospital, said due to high prevalence of seropositivity, which indicates that more than 80-90 per cent of the population has been infected by coronavirus, measures like wearing masks can be done away with.

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