Here's How Politics Trumped Economics In The Banning Of Liquor In Bihar

Indian politics has always been a theatre of individual popularity. Nitish Kumar belongs to the same extraordinary league. The engineer turned politicians was once projected against Modi as the next big thing. When he formed a coalition government with rival-turned-partner Lalu Prasad, they were hailed as the ¡®real seculars¡¯ who stalled Modi¡¯s juggernaut.

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He surprised many, when Bihar became the only third state in India after Nagaland and Gujarat, where all forms of liquor was banned. The trajectory of Nitish¡¯s politics took a new turn, after all it was under his rule that the liquor sale reached its peak and a new department was established to cater to the program that generated lot of revenue for the financially poor state.

Why Nitish decided to go for complete ban?

Except Gujarat none of the states in India has successfully banned liquor, Haryana being a prime example. The rise of Nitish Kumar has one strong linkage with support from the women during elections.

They were his strongest base beyond caste, class and religion; after all women were the ones asking for a liquor ban. He has become a messiah overnight against the root of all social ills. Bihar is a state of outbound migrants both domestically and foreign especially in the gulf and that also helps Nitish's political calculation; women as a strong vote base. In the last assembly election, an overwhelming majority of women voted for Nitish-led Mahagathbandhan, according to Centre for the Study of Developing Societies data.

And the latest liquor ban in Bihar is perhaps an attempt by Nitish Kumar to consolidate that gain. Some of his other decisions, free cycle for school girls and reserving 50% seats in local bodies were steps in that direction. But overnight ban is also state policing in a sense, especially in a free liberal democratic society where each individual has a choice to consume things and are protected by law. But society at large adheres to such norms because liquor consumption is still considered as an immoral act if not illegal. But enforcing the ban and its acceptance in reality are different issues. The government has ensured that they will take all measures to make it successful. The government officials have been asked to spread awareness through agencies including representation from civil society and self help groups. But local bureaucracy hasn¡¯t had such experiences and therefore it is easier said than done. Grey market is expected to grow because people will still want to consume alcohol. In most parts of Bihar, apart from toddy, people make homemade liquor like Bhang (edible preparation of cannabis) especially in North Bihar bordering Nepal. Nepal border can be a source for illegal transportation which only helps in the rise of illegal market.

Politics over Economics

When liquor was banned, Nitish Kumar said ¡°It will be strongly implemented,¡± but consumption pattern in Bihar is comparatively lower than the national average and even lower than Andhra and Kerala. The data from the National Sample Survey Organisation gives a different picture. According to it, people in Bihar spends very little on alcohol. The per capita expenditure on alcohol is around Rs 15.50 a month in the state, which is below undivided Andhra Pradesh (Rs 173 including Telangana), Kerala (Rs 80.85), and Punjab (around Rs 72). The all-India average is around Rs 35, more than double of Bihar's share.

Legal consumption of alcohol did rise in Bihar during Kumar's tenure. It is between 2005 and 2015, the number of alcohol shops doubled in Bihar. In 2006, Kumar established the Bihar State Beverages Corporation to cater supplier price mechanism price stabilisation. These steps gave the state's finances a leg-up. According to media reports before Nitish came to power the state's earnings from excise on liquor were less than Rs 300 crore which augmented to Rs 3,300 crore by 2014. How his government will maintain its revenue is still to be seen, but at the moment, politics has really scored over economics.

Alcohol and crime

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Although alcohol consumption is widely believed to be a precipitator of violent behaviours, an individual's personality still plays an important role. Alcohol is a subject in the State List under the Seventh Schedule of the Constitution of India. Therefore, the laws governing alcohol vary from state to state.

However the data suggests a pattern in case of India. According to a 2012 report published by experts in the IRACST (International Journal of Research in Management and Technology), India has the dubious distinction of having the most number of fatal road accidents in the world. ¡°India accounts for about 10 per cent of road accident fatalities worldwide,¡± the report says. ¡°A major contributor to traffic deaths is drunk driving, responsible for 70 per cent of road fatalities.¡±

Bihar is a classic example now to decode the link. The recent crime statistics in Bihar backs chief minister Nitish Kumar's claim that crime rate has come down by about 27 per cent since imposition of total prohibition in the state in early April. The state machinery acknowledges that Prohibition and pro-active policing have been major contributors for decline in the number of criminal cases. Even the state criminal investigating department (CID) records suggest, the number of both minor and major riot cases witnessed a drop in April this year.

The challenge ahead

The challenge for Nitish government would be to successfully implement the ban in the long run with participation from all the state holders. The challenge would be manifold especially illegal market which would be hard to contain considering Bihar¡¯s border with Nepal and local supply from neighbouring states like Uttar Pradesh and Jharkhand. However Nitish has earned the laurels and since every family at large support his venture, it's interesting and equally significant how the programme really works. Nitish's call for ban has really changed the political equations not only in Bihar but it might help him in projecting himself on the larger scene of Indian politics.

This is political maneuvering which is going to reap a better political and social capital for him. Political pundits are projecting him as the new face of third front against Modi and surely such social issues will cement his pursuit in the long run.