India's Groundwater Depletion Could Triple In 50 Years, Affect Food, Water Security: Study

A new study has said that at the current rate, the groundwater depletion in India could triple by 2080, threatening the country's food and water security.

The study by researchers at the University of Michigan found that farmers in India are forced to withdraw more water from the ground to irrigate their fields, which is expediting the depletion.

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Why are farmers using more groundwater?

The study analysed recent changes in withdrawal rates due to warming by looking at historical data on groundwater levels, climate and crop water stress to estimate future groundwater loss rates across India.

Further, it took into account the farmers' potential need for increased irrigation under warming conditions, which would likely enhance water demand from stressed crops, the researchers said.

The farmers' adaptation strategy of intensified groundwater withdrawal had not been accounted for in earlier projections of groundwater depletion in India; the researchers found when they used temperature and precipitation projections from 10 climate models.

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What is increasing groundwater withdrawal

"Using our model estimates, we project that under a business-as-usual scenario, warming temperatures may triple groundwater depletion rates in the future and expand groundwater depletion hotspots to include south and central India," said lead author Nishan Bhattarai.

Most models looked at increased temperature, increased monsoon (June through September) precipitation and decreased winter precipitation in India over the coming decades, the researchers said.

For this analysis, the researchers' dataset consisted of groundwater depths of wells across India, high-resolution satellite observations of crop water stress and temperature and precipitation records.

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Will get worse

They found that warming temperatures and declining winter precipitation accelerated groundwater declines at a rate far greater than that of groundwater recharge from increased monsoon precipitation.

Across various climate-change scenarios, their estimates of groundwater-level declines between 2041 and 2080 were more than three times current depletion rates, on average, they said.

Driest August on record

The study comes at a time when it has been reported that August 2023 was the driest and warmest for the entire country since record-keeping began in 1901.

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There was an unprecedented deficiency of 36% monsoon in August, with states like Kerala experiencing summer-like temperatures and near 'drought'.

As August recorded 18 per cent deficit rainfall in Odisha, at least four districts -- Nawarangpur, Kendrapara, Kalahandi, and Ganjam could be heading to a drought-like situation.

Normal monsoon in September, but...

The India Meteorological Department's (IMD) predictions for September 2023 point towards normal rainfall for India.

IMD Director General Mrutyunjay Mohapatra said September will likely witness normal rainfall in the range of 91-109 per cent of the long-period average of 167.9 mm.

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He said the development of El Nino conditions in the equatorial Pacific Ocean was the most important factor behind the deficient rainfall activity in August.

However, the Indian Ocean Dipole -- the difference in sea surface temperature of Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal -- has started turning positive, which could counter the El Nino impact, Mohapatra said.

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