Kerala, Uttarakhand: States With Not Much In Common, Except A Recent Spate Of Natural Disasters

In the past few weeks, several states in India, mostly in the southern part of the country were hit by heavy rains and floods. But, out of these, two have stood out, Kerala and Uttarakhand.

The deluges in the southern and northern states were among the worst this year in the country and the sudden onslaught of it caught everyone by surprise.

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Weather patterns are changing

One reason for this is the timing. Heavy rains and flooding in peak monsoons are not anything new in Kerala, but that is usually in July and August. But this time, the floods and mudflow hit the state in October, when the monsoons are receding, which is not normal.

It should also be noted that even after the southwest monsoon, which is between June and September, Kerala never stopped getting frequent rains.

Throughout September and October Kerala had been getting moderate to heavy rains, due to the formation of low-pressure areas both in the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal.

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Last week's freak rains in Kerala are blamed on two simultaneous low pressures in the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal along with minor cloudbursts, a rare occurrence, but one which experts say may become common in the days ahead.

That is because the weather patterns in Kerala have changed vastly in the past few years and the intensity and frequency of heavy rains have gone up.

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This became visible in 2018 when the state was hit by what has since been described as the flood of the century.

In 2019 too there was a similar flood, though it did not last as long as the previous year, two major landslides that buried entire villages once again showed there is something wrong.

In 2020 the floods were comparatively less intense, but again disaster struck in the form of a landslide in Munnar.

This year, there were two deadly landslides and mudflows last week in Idukki and Kottayam districts which killed nearly 40 people.

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Destruction of the Western Ghats

While it is not much discussed outside, people of Kerala were warned a few years ago that the weather patterns as they knew it is going to change, due to the destruction of the Western Ghats.

The Gadgil Committee Report which suggested leaving the Western Ghats untouched in certain areas, bringing in conservation efforts in some others and opening only a few for developmental activities has been put on the back burner by all six states, including Kerala due to political compulsions.

Uttarakhand from 2013 floods

Similarly, in Uttrakhand, starting from 2013 the hill state too has been on the receiving end of some deadly weather events.

Uncontrolled construction and mining activities even in ecologically fragile zones are blamed for the frequent occurrence of flash floods and deadly landslides in Uttarakhand.

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Last week the India Meteorological Department (IMD) had issued warnings for 'extreme weather events'.

As per IMD predictions, the extremely heavy rainfall in Uttarakhand on Monday and Tuesday was a result of interaction between a Western Disturbance and a low-pressure area over Madhya Pradesh. As per the IMD glossary, Western Disturbance (WD) is a storm that originates over the Mediterranean Sea, Caspian Sea and Black Sea and moves eastwards towards north India.

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Frequency of Western Disturbances is maximum in the months of December and January, but throughout the year, there are WDs. "In monsoon season too, there is WD. In 2013, on June 16, it was an active WD like the current one. The low-pressure area was laying over Uttar Pradesh. Both interacted and it caused extremely heavy rainfall leading to the Kedarnath tragedy," recalled IMD Director General, Mrutyunjay Mahapatra.

Climate change is here

However, Mahapatra refused to directly attribute the frequency of WD or the extreme weather event to climate change as he said, interaction between WDs and low-pressure areas led to this extreme weather episode, and this has happened earlier too.

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"The frequency of heavy rainfall events is increasing due to climate change, especially in association with low-pressure areas."

It has been widely accepted that Climate Change will bring more extreme weather events, and if we look at what is happening in the country, it is already here.

"There are two different stories for climate change -- one at the regional level and the other at the global scale. But what is important is that the experts have warned how climate change will have an unequal impact in a given area. Localised extreme weather events are a cause of worry," a senior meteorologist from IMD Pune, KS Hosalikar said.

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