Possible 3rd Covid Wave Unlikely to Affect Children, South Delhi Kids Safest: WHO-AIIMS Survey

A serological surveillance (sero survey) under the World Health Organization (WHO), conducted by the All India Institute of Medical Sciences (AIIMS), has made clear that the third possible wave of the coronavirus pandemic is unlikely to affect the children more than the adult population.

What did it find?

The interim findings of the ongoing sero survey point out that the SARS-CoV-2 seropositivity rate in children aged two years and above is comparable to that in adults and thus there is no statistical evidence to suggest that the 2-17 age group is especially vulnerable to a potential third wave.

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The survey showed very high seroprevalence in resettlement colonies in South Delhi¡¯s overpopulated urban areas ¡ª at 74.7 per cent, which is an unprecedented figure reported in any sero survey conducted so far, said Dr Puneet Misra, Professor of Community Medicine at AIIMS Delhi, who was one of the authors of the study.

The survey, however, stated that currently, ¡°we are reporting the available data of 2-17 years age group from Delhi urban and rural sites of, National Capital region of Delhi (NCR), Bhubaneswar, Gorakhpur and Tripura".

Seroprevelance high among kids

Seroprevalence was high among children in South Delhi even before the second coronavirus wave ¡ª at 73.9 per cent. This was just slightly less than the percentage recorded among those above 18 years ¡ª 74.8 per cent.

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Who is more vulnerable?

The WHO-AIIMS survey also suggested opening schools in Delhi¡¯s urban areas since children there have high seroprevalence. The survey said that during the second wave, Faridabad rural areas reported a seroprevalence of nearly 59.3 per cent ¡ª both among children and adults, and this could be considered high as compared to past national sero surveys.

Gorakhpur Rural in Uttar Pradesh has also recorded a very high seroprevalence of 87.9 per cent (among those aged 2-18 years), while those above 18 years had a seroprevalence of 90.3 per cent. It further said that more than half ¡ª 62.3 per cent ¡ª of the total rural population that was surveyed has shown evidence of past coronavirus infection.

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The lowest seroprevalence has been recorded in Agartala¡¯s rural areas ¡ª at 51.9 per cent. This could be because of the presence of a considerably high tribal population there, which usually have less mobility, thus leading to less exposure to coronavirus.

Where and when was the survey conducted?

The survey, conducted across five states involving a sample population of 10,000, found high seroprevalence among children, which may offer them protection from the third wave.

The findings of the ongoing sero survey have been published on medRxiv, a pre-print server, and are based on a mid-term analysis of the data of the 4,509 participants -- 700 children in the 2-17 years age group and 3,809 aged 18 years and above. Data was collected between March 15 and June 10 from these selected sites.

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¡°SARS-CoV-2 sero-positivity rate among children was high and were comparable to the adult population. Hence, it is unlikely that any future third wave by prevailing COVID19 variant would disproportionately affect children two years or older," the survey stated.