Craving The Hills? Put Plans On Hold As ICMR Says 'Revenge Travel' May Worsen 3rd Covid Wave

Are you craving the warmth of the morning sun of the hills? Can you not wait to go back to go to a beach holiday after months of confinement? If yes, there's bad news. Experts have warned that our ¡®revenge travel¡¯ ¡ª an urge to travel after being under restrictions for an extended period of time ¡ª could come at a cost.

You may once again have to abandon your travel plans, if the latest warning by ICMR is true. The medical body has warned that a rise in social gatherings by tourists or mass congregations due to social, religious or political events may set off the third COVID-19 wave in India.

Unsplash

What does the study say?

A study by researchers from the Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR) and Imperial College London says ¡®revenge travel¡¯ could worsen the third Covid wave in India, and cause a higher peak between the months of February and March next year.

Researchers said that data from Himachal Pradesh suggests that in a typical holiday season, tourism can increase the population by 40 percent. "Taking this into consideration, the third-wave peak can increase by up to 47 percent during the holiday season and can occur two weeks earlier compared to a scenario of easing restrictions in the absence of holiday travel," researchers said.

BCCL

What will be its effect on the society?

In the worst-case scenario, where researchers take into account that India¡¯s high population density has a stronger effect on transmission, the third-wave peak could go up 103 per cent, and the timing of the epidemic peak could be hastened by four weeks, compared to a scenario of easing restrictions in the absence of holiday travel.

An IIT-Mandi study last year had also suggested that domestic travel had a major role in the spread of Covid-19 in India.

Screengrab

Published last month in the peer-reviewed Journal of Travel Medicine, the study sought to model the impact of domestic travel on a potential third Covid-19 wave in India. The objectives included recognising the potential risks associated with increase in revenge tourism. ICMR Director General Balram Bhargava is among the researchers who carried out the study, The Print reported.

How did the experts reach the conclusion?

For this, the researchers created a mathematical model that sought to recreate what would happen in a hypothetical state of India that resembles Himachal Pradesh based on the dynamics of its first and second waves ¡ª including the much lower seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 there compared to the rest of the country.

While India¡¯s second Covid wave was severe, its impact in smaller states with low population density was less intense, the researchers note. Not only this, cases in popular tourist destinations such as Himachal Pradesh saw a delayed peak, they add.

BCCL

¡°There are undoubtedly important benefits as society gradually returns to normal, in India and elsewhere; domestic travel to holiday destinations provides benefits not just for visitors, but also for local economies that have been under considerable stress for over a year,¡± the team wrote in the study.

Can the crisis be averted?

¡°A shared sense of responsibility, amongst visitors, residents and local authorities, will go a long way towards protecting the welfare of the country as a whole,¡± the researchers added.

According to the industry experts, when people travel with family, they are willing to spend more on accommodation to ensure that the stay is safe, the room is santised and comfortable.