Revolution Is Upon Us, 2018 An Important Year For Electric Cars In India And The World

In 2018, a brave new world will unfold in India, which has already been predicted by futurists. Tony Seba, a serial Silicon Valley entrepreneur, and an instructor in Entrepreneurship, Disruption and Clean Energy at Stanford's Continuing Studies Program, says electric vehicles would destroy the global oil industry in 15 years by replacing ICE (internal combustion engine) vehicles. He goes a step further and says 95% of people won't own private cars by 2030 which will wipe off the automobile industry. Part of Seba's prediction will begin to come true in India in 2018. And by 2030 it will fully turn into reality. At least, that's how it's all being planned.

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The electric impulse

When Chetan Maini launched India's first electric car, Reva, in 2001, it was seen as a new-age fad, an idea whose time had yet not come. The slow and small Reva was more of an ideological statement than a viable alternative. The situation did not change even after 15 years despite M&M acquiring Reva and launching a better electric car. M&M was regarded as a maverick instead of a first mover in a segment that was still seen as too futuristic for India. Then the government decided last year to set an ambitious target to allow only electric cars in India by 2030. The decision was seen as a valiant act of an over-reaching government, trying to race ahead of even developed countries¡ªBritain will ban the sale of new petrol and diesel cars 10 years after India, from 2040.

But come 2018, India will see a dream rolling out on the roads. A Utopian idea will hit the ground as a viable, attractive and enduring alternative.

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The Tata Motors is on its way to create history. It has rolled out the first batch of Tigor EV out of its Sanand factory in Gujarat. These cars will be used by the government in 2018. Tata has won the tender of 10,000 electric cars floated by Energy Efficiency Services Ltd in September 2017.

2018 will be a momentous year in Indian history as the government¡ªusually seen to be lagging in new trends and averse to lead by example¡ªwill be making a new beginning by acquiring a fleet of electric cars. It would come a long way off from carrying on with lumbering, anachronistic Ambassador well after Indians were driving much advanced cars.

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Hitting the road

The government's fleet of electric cars will be an effort to jumpstart the electric revolution in India and turn the sceptics into believers.

At present, India is seen to be sorely lacking the infrastructure necessary for mass adoption of electric cars. India has nearly 56,000 fuel stations. Compare them with the number of community charging stations across the country¡ª206. For an-all-electric-car target, India needs to ramp up infrastructure in a big way. Since the operating range of electric vehicles is low, India would need a humongous charging infrastructure. Creation of so much infrastructure also needs a clear-cut policy as technology is evolving and might keep changing.

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The government has already made a beginning. In November, Nagpur became the first city in India to have an electric -vehicle charging station by an oil marketing company, Indian Oil Corporation. IOC is India's first oil marketing company to set up a charging station at its petrol pump.The government fleet of electric cars which will hit the roads in 2018 will also bring with itself a limited charging infrastructure.

The 2018 initiative is small but significant beginning aimed at creating sudden disruption. Imagine the impact on popular as well as corporate imagination as the babudom will be being driven around in new-age vehicles . The government initiative will not only spur its own agencies to speed up preparations for electric revolution but also convince automakers that the government means business when it says it will drive out all petrol and diesel vehicles by 2030.

"Transformation happens when savvy technologists rapidly reduce hardware costs and innovative entrepreneurs simultaneously develop new business models to economically deploy this hardware. India is a country full of these changemakers, and already members of the government, private sector, and civil society are quickly shaping India's mobility transformation," says the FICCI-Rocky Mountain Institute (RMI) report on electric mobility in India.

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The report has made projections that will make India's 2030 all-electric aim look real. By 2027, 4-wheel EV sales may exceed 4-wheel ICE sales (Graph 1), the report says. After this intersection point, 4-wheel EV sales will grow rapidly, with nearly 16 million 4-wheel EV sales in 2030.

As battery costs continue to fall, the total cost of ownership of privately owned EVs in India¡ªincluding purchase price, fuel and maintenance costs, and other expenses¡ªwill be lower than a comparable ICE in 2020 (Graph 2), a tipping point that will dramatically accelerate EV adoption.

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Remember the horses

Car-owning households soared from 8% to 80% in a decade, as the Ford Model T became 62% cheaper in 13 years , and GM and DuPont developed an innovative financing mechanism called car loans," says the Ficci-RMI report. India has every chance to see coming together of technology, policy and business to push the change.

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2018 is important because it will see a new experiment that will go on to become the norm in nearly a decade. We will see an oddity becoming part of our way of life. We can also expect a lot of new buyers to stop in their tracks and wait for more electric cars to come before they buy their first cars. The disruptive experiment will change mindsets, activate policy and lead to creation of larger infrastructure. 2018 will be a curtain-raiser on India's 2030 dream to have only electric cars.