Here's How Once Secular Turkey Has Just Handed Over Its Future To 'Sultan' Erdogan And His Party

In less than a hundred years, Turkey is at the crossroads of defining itself - yet again.

Reuters

Last time, it was the enigmatic leader, Mustafa Kemal Ataturk, who declared the formation of a secular Republic of Turkey after the disintegration of the Ottoman Empire as a result of World War I. This time, it is the populist campaigner, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who promises to free Turkish people from the imposed Kemalist secular principles, reproach from the European Union and bring back the lost glory and respect that Turkey saw under the Ottoman Sultans.

The die is cast and the majority of the people have voted ¡®Yes¡¯ in favour of the proposed amendments to the Turkish constitution. Now what? Where is arguably the ¡®most modern¡¯ country with an overwhelming Muslim majority moving towards?

Reuters

Is it a departure from democratic and secular values that Ataturk brought to the nation? Is it the official beginning of autocracy once again as the referendum seeks to change Turkey from a Parliamentary system to a powerful Presidential system? Should the Turks living inside and outside Turkey, who voted 'no', be worried? Or should it just be seen as a momentary victory of a self-obsessed politician?

What does the Turkish referendum result mean?

As what exactly is cooking inside Erdogan¡¯s brain still remains uncertain, here is what the result of the referendum is expected to do. This will enable the Turkish government to change the constitution and its governance from a parliamentary system to an executive presidency with extreme powers. It means that the powers of the top office will significantly increase, virtually making way for the head to act as an autocrat.

It will also give the President (next to be elected in 2019) new powers to appoint vice-presidents, ministers, high-level officials, and senior judges. Isn¡¯t it scary? On top of that, it will also allow the president to dissolve parliament, issue executive decrees, and impose the state of emergency. That¡¯s surely not going to be democratic, no matter how Erdogan spporters try to convince the others. The only silver lining here is that it will limit the presidency to two five-year terms.

It¡¯s been Erdogan all the way

Erdogan may not be bipolar himself, but the opinions on him are sharply divided across the world. For one section of the commentators, he is reminiscent of the autocrats that once ruled major parts of Europe and dragged people into several wars and subsequent destruction. While others count him as a leader, who appeals to the masses in Turkey and other Muslim countries; a leader who can take action against those who demean the Turkish pride.

Reuters

There is no doubt that Erdogan has had people¡¯s support during all tenures ¨C as Mayor of Istanbul, as PM of Turkey, and now as President ¨C at various offices he held. However, he has drawn an equal amount of criticism for allegedly choking the democratic rights of the people in Turkey. But, he hardly seems to care about criticism and continues to remain on the path he has chosen for the country. After all, he has all the support that he needs.

¡°We have been attacked by other nations of the world. You have seen how the West attacked us,¡± Erdogan told his supporters in Istanbul as the result of the referendum was being declared.

And to his liking, his supporters see this as a new era in Turkish history. Well, it could be true. But one thing is for sure: People¡¯s choice for absolute power in the hands of one man or one party, looks a really dangerous proposition, to begin with.

Fears of crackdown

Referendum or not, Erdogan has exercised his existing powers to maul those who he and his nationalist allies accused of being ¡®anti-national¡¯ (well, this sounds quite familiar to the Indians under the current regime). The Turkish authorities have shown no mercy in muzzling voices of opposition. From shutting down of media houses to crackdown on academics and prosecution of critics, the Turkish government, led by Erdogan¡¯s Justice and Development Party, also known as AKP, has practised politics of vendetta.

Reuters

With the emergence of rabid Right-wing governments in many parts of the world, ¡®national interest¡¯ is an easy excuse for anything that is done by the ruler. People - majority of them - give them the backing that they need to make sure that they don¡¯t lose ground when it comes to electoral politics. The failed coup attempt by a section of Turkish army personnel also gave Erdogan the legitimacy to further cement his place and uproot the opposition in whatever form it is simmering. It is very likely that with new powers, things may go even worse, all in the name of ¡®national interest¡¯.

Turkey and the Middle East

Not long ago, just before the so-called Arab Spring began in North Africa and West Asia, with hundreds of thousands of people taking to streets and demonstrating against their rulers, Turkey was seen as a model of democracy, particularly for the Muslim majority countries in the region that were ruled by dictators. Now, the conditions have changed drastically. Syria is experiencing a bloody civil war, Libya is nothing short of a medieval tribal battleground, Egypt again has a military dictator ruling the country, Yemen is under attack by Saudi Arabia, Iraq is consumed by sectarian violence.

Away from the sectarian jousts between ¡®Sunni¡¯ Saudi Arabia and ¡®Shia¡¯ Iran and their influence on all these conflicts, can Turkey offer the stability to these embattled Arab states?

Reuters

It looks unlikely. Erdogan is expected to first concentrate on the domestic issues and garner further support for making changes in the constitution he and his party wants. After that he may think of venturing beyond Turkish boundaries. Turkey¡¯s involvement in Syria is going to continue due to NATO compulsions and new equations with Russia.

New era or return to the past?

Between the criticism and praises, the authorities in Turkey seem to be confused whether they should dub their success as a ¡®new era¡¯ in Turkish history or return to the ¡®glorious past of the Ottomans¡¯. A century has passed since the disintegration of the centuries-old empire, there are still a considerable number of people in Turkey who yearn for the Ottoman period. They want to express themselves as Muslims in the streets, at cafes, and in any public space, they go to. At the same time, there are people, young and old, who want to see Turkey going forward without any baggage of the past. They want to remain free from state-sponsored history, politics, culture and religion.

Reuters

Turkey, like India and Israel, is grappling with the question of defining itself while oscillating between the ideas of religion and secularism. The referendum has been a closely fought one with only a little over 51 per cent of people voting for reforms. This only gives hope that there is enough opposition in Turkey. But, do they have any voice beyond vote? Looking at what has happened in the recent past, it looks very unlikely.

The coming weeks will tell which direction Turkey chooses for its future, but one thing is for sure: With this referendum win, Erdogan and his party AKP will reduce the secular Kemalist constitution to just a relic in Ankara. Or it was already done, when Erdogan entered the office.