US Presidential Election 2024: Historian who predicted every election since 1984 picks Kamala Harris to win
Lichtman's "Keys to the White House" consists of 13 questions, and according to him, the candidate who wins more than six points will win the Presidential Elections.
Allan Lichtman, an election forecaster who is also known as 'Political Nostradamus' and ＆Prediction Professor,＊ has picked the name of the incumbent Vice President Kamala Harris as the favorite to win the US Presidential Elections. Lichtman, who has correctly predicted nearly every presidential race since 1984, uses a formula that he developed to assess the presidential candidates and predict the winner.
American University
How the winner is predicted
Lichtman's "Keys to the White House" consists of 13 questions, and according to him, the candidate who wins more than six points will win the Presidential Elections. The 13 true or false questions are asked about the presidential candidates, and if "true," they are given a "key," and if "false," their competitor receives the point.
Also read: Why Kamala Harris is Kamala and Donald Trump is Trump
The Keys to the White House are:
每 Party mandate
每 Contest
每 Incumbency
每 Third party
每 Short-term economy
每 Long-term economy
每 Policy change
每 Social unrest
每 Scandal
每 Foreign/military failure
每 Foreign/military success
每 Incumbent charisma
每 Challenger charisma
How many keys do Harris and Trump have
Currently, Harris sits with six keys: primary contest, short-term economy, long-term economy, policy change, no scandal, and no challenger charisma. Trump has three keys: winning the House majority in the 2022 midterms, the current incumbent not seeking re-election, and the current incumbent lacking charisma.
Four keys still to be handed out
However, Lichtman has not handed out four of the keys yet; these include the third-party factor, no social unrest, foreign military failure, and foreign military success.
American University
Though Harris is the odds-on favorite as of now, Lichtman will make his final prediction only after handing out the four remaining keys, which could swing the election either way.
AP
Ever since she replaced Joe Biden as the Democratic Presidential Candidate, Harris has surged in opinion polls and has managed to close the gap with Trump, who at one point was leading by several points.
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Bobins Abraham is the Assistant News Editor at Indiatimes. He has more than twelve years of experience in TV and digital journalism. An avid student of history and geopolitics, he is a conservationist and environmentalist at heart. He writes on environment, sustainability, human-animal conflict and more.
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