Opinion trading: Redefining the rules of wealth creation in India

Imagine a world where financial markets aren¡¯t dominated by institutional giants and algorithmic wizards but by the collective wisdom and skill of everyday people. A world where your insight and judgment hold as much power as a hedge fund¡¯s latest strategy. This isn¡¯t just a dream¡ªit¡¯s the promise of Opinion Trading, a revolutionary approach poised to democratize market participation in India.

In the Indian stock market, only a fraction of participants¡ªprimarily institutional investors and seasoned traders¡ªgenerate consistent, meaningful returns. While retail participation has grown, the harsh truth is that more than 90% of retail traders fail to profit in the long run. According to a Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) report, 89% of active retail traders in equity derivatives incur losses, with only 1% making significant gains. This reality has left many aspiring traders disillusioned, convinced that markets favor the few at the expense of the many.

Opinion Trading: Skill Over Chance

Contrary to the perception that market participation is a gamble, Opinion Trading is fundamentally a game of skill¡ªa space where strategy, data analysis, and informed decision-making determine success. Users are required to analyze available information, apply their knowledge, and predict outcomes of real-world events. Success depends not on blind luck but on the ability to interpret trends, assess probabilities, and make calculated decisions.

Consider a typical Opinion Trade: Users analyze an event¡ªsuch as election outcomes, sports results, or market trends¡ªand take a position based on the probability of different outcomes. Platforms like Probo even allow users to exit trades mid-way as part of their strategy, much like experienced traders adjust their portfolios in response to new information.

The success ratios on these platforms are telling. The top 1,000 users on Probo have an average success ratio of 66.75%, while the top 10,000 users achieve a success ratio of 65.75%¡ªa clear demonstration that skill, not chance, dictates outcomes. Such statistics are a testament to the fact that opinion trading is not random; it rewards preparation, foresight, and the ability to adapt to evolving circumstances.

Moreover, access to relevant, publicly available data and tools provided by these platforms helps users refine their predictions. Information symmetry, a critical element in financial markets, ensures that participants are on an even footing, making success contingent on individual skill and judgment.

Financial Inclusion: Echoing the Ideals of Smith and Mill

The core promise of Opinion Trading resonates deeply with the principles of Adam Smith and John Stuart Mill, whose philosophies remain relevant in today¡¯s quest for economic fairness and inclusion. Adam Smith, in The Wealth of Nations, emphasized decentralization of power and the need for markets to operate freely without undue concentration of influence. In India¡¯s financial ecosystem, however, the power balance has long skewed toward institutional investors with access to superior resources, technology, and information.

Opinion Trading breaks this monopoly by leveling the playing field. It allows participants from different walks of life to engage meaningfully in financial markets, regardless of their professional backgrounds. This decentralized, skill-based model reflects Smith¡¯s vision of a truly free market¡ªa space where knowledge and individual insight can influence outcomes as much as institutional strategies.

Meanwhile, John Stuart Mill, a fierce advocate of personal liberty and free speech, argued in On Liberty that the free exchange of ideas is essential for social progress. Opinion Trading transforms financial prediction into a vibrant marketplace of opinions, where diverse perspectives¡ªregardless of geographic location, social status, or formal education¡ªshape market predictions and outcomes.

For India, a country of 1.4 billion people with a growing middle class and increasing internet penetration, this is a game-changer. A tea vendor in Ahmedabad, a teacher in Guwahati, or a farmer in Madhya Pradesh can now contribute to and profit from financial markets, breaking the traditional barriers of access and inclusion. Skill and insight¡ªnot legacy¡ªare what matter in this new paradigm.

Democratising Wealth Creation: The Next Step in Economic Evolution

Wealth creation in India has traditionally been limited to a select few with access to insider information, specialized knowledge, and abundant capital. This has contributed to widening inequality and created an ecosystem where financial success often depends more on your network than your talent or insight.

Opinion Trading disrupts this status quo, offering a more inclusive model that prioritizes insight over investment size. By eliminating traditional barriers¡ªsuch as deep market knowledge or expensive tools¡ªOpinion Trading empowers a new generation of wealth creators. Here, anyone with a mobile phone and internet connection can participate and profit from real-world predictions without the need for advanced financial expertise.

In fact, John Maynard Keynes¡¯ belief in reducing inequality through innovative economic models aligns perfectly with the goals of Opinion Trading. Keynes warned against markets controlled by insiders, advocating for greater inclusion to prevent systemic risks. Opinion Trading does precisely that by focusing on outcomes rather than market speculation, ensuring that even those with limited financial literacy can still make informed predictions and share in wealth creation.

This model is particularly relevant for India¡¯s tech-savvy, digitally connected population. With over 750 million internet users and growing, Opinion Trading could spark a revolution in how wealth is created, distributed, and experienced.

A Digital Sabha for the Modern Age

In many ways, Opinion Trading is the digital equivalent of a modern sabha¡ªa vibrant, inclusive space where ideas are exchanged, debated, and rewarded. Unlike the ancient Athenian agora or traditional Indian sabhas, which were accessible only to a privileged few, this digital sabha is open to all, fueled by India¡¯s rapid internet growth and smartphone revolution.

Imagine a student in Patna, a farmer in Nagpur, and an entrepreneur in Kochi contributing their views on market outcomes, competing on equal footing with professionals in Mumbai¡¯s financial district. The democratization of data and the accessibility of predictive platforms have transformed trading into a form of crowdsourced intelligence, where every perspective matters.

Just as ancient sabhas shaped India¡¯s discourse and policies, today¡¯s digital sabhas are shaping the future of financial decision-making. They offer equal opportunity for all participants, breaking down barriers and ensuring that India¡¯s diversity becomes its strength in financial markets.

Conclusion: The Future of Skill-Based Financial Innovation

India stands at the cusp of financial innovation, and Opinion Trading is more than just a novel concept¡ªit¡¯s a movement that transforms skill into success. By empowering individuals to contribute their insights and participate in markets, this model could reshape the financial landscape and set a new global standard.

In the words of Plato, ¡°The beginning is the most important part of the work.¡± Opinion Trading represents a new beginning for financial inclusion, where insight, skill, and strategy¡ªnot just capital¡ªbecome the true currencies of success.

Authored by Nikhil A. Menon, a tech lawyer and industry analyst.