A Second Wave Of COVID 19 Infections In India May Take Place In Monsoon Months
Coronavirus cases in India are likely to plateau soon and might even go down for some weeks. There is however a possibility of a second wave of the infection sweeping the country in the coming months experts suggest. Second wave is expected to hit India in the monsoon season in the months of July and August.
Coronavirus cases in India are likely to plateau soon and might even go down for some weeks. There is, however, a possibility of a second wave of the infection sweeping the country in the coming months, experts suggest.
The second wave is expected to hit the country in the monsoon season, in the months of July and August. The predicted resurgence in the number of cases is based upon the level of infection spread within the country after the nationwide lockdown is lifted. This, and the limit to which precautionary measures against COVID 19 (like physical distancing), are practiced will determine the peak of the resurgence. The prediction has been shared by Samit Bhattacharya, associate professor at the Department of Mathematics, Shiv Nadar University, in a recent interaction with PTI.
A similar situation is being observed in China which, after resuming its activities to some extent, has seen a rise in the number of Coronavirus infected cases yet again.
Bhattacharya also pointed out that those infected by the COVID 19 in the first outbreak may not be immune to the disease during its resurgence. He cited recent studies in China and Europe for the same, that observed the lack of immunity against the disease in those already affected by it. That puts the entire population of the country at a risk of the virus even during its second wave.
(Representative Image: BCCL)
A working paper by researchers at IISc and the Tata Institute of Fundamental Research (TIFR) in Mumbai confirms the possibility of a second wave. The paper analyses the impact of strategies against COVID 19 including social distancing, home quarantine, case isolation and other post-lockdown restrictions.
Sundaresan, a corresponding author of the paper, explains the steps needed to be taken to avoid the second wave. ¡°The lockdown is currently upon us. It has given us valuable time. Let us test, trace, quarantine, isolate, practice better hygiene, search for a vaccine, etc. We should do these anyway, and these are being done,¡± said Sundaresan as per the PTI report.
The underlying reason
Infectious diseases like the novel Coronavirus spread via contact between infectious and healthy people. The outbreak of the virus will hence grow as soon as the physical distancing measures like the ongoing lockdown are not in place anymore. The growth in cases will then be on the rise till the time an infected person infects more than one people on average.
AFP
This means that the precautionary measures being followed currently are likely to be practiced on an on-and-off basis for a good time to come or at least until there is a vaccine on the market. Only when herd immunity is achieved is when the threat of a resurgence of infected cases can be negated in a society.
On top of it, the monsoon months predicted to bring the second wave are also considered the flu season in many places of India. Testing for COVID 19 in such a season will likely be difficult and hence the spread of the virus might go unchecked at the time.
A visible solution to this is the restricted movement of the masses as being observed in the lockdown. In the case of a resurgence of the Coronavirus in the country, it is likely the implementation of subsequent lockdowns becomes necessary to keep the spread of the virus in check.