Australia Says It's Close To Ending Active Coronavirus Cases, But Normal Life Long Way Away

Australia seems to be headed on the path of fully recovering from the Coronavirus spread within the country's border, says a new report.

A tracking model used by the nation predicts that the COVID-19 infection levels in the country are low enough to suggest a complete elimination of the virus from mainland Australia.

Reuters

The experts in the region accredit the control of the outbreak to social distancing. The new federal government modelling shows that every 10 people infected in Australia currently spread the virus to five more people on an average. At that rate, the virus ¡°would eventually be unable to circulate and would die out within Australia.¡±

That, however, is no reason to stop following the ongoing lockdown and social distancing measures, warns Professor Jodie McVernon, director of Doherty Epidemiology, leader of the team responsible for the COVID 19 tracking model.

"Our epidemic is in decline but it does not let us be complacent. If we were to release those measures now ... those 10 cases today would produce 25 new cases over the course of their infection, not five," she says.

(Representative Image: Reuters)

How things look positive

Australia saw a peak in the number of COVID-19 cases detected on March 28. At 460, the peak has since then fallen steeply, to a mere 38 new diagnosed cases across the nation on April 15.

The Doherty model is being used by the Australian government to assess the situation and respond to the pandemic accordingly. The model focuses on Australia¡¯s R0, or reproduction number ¨C a measure of the average number of people possibly infected by an infected person.

For the virus to be eradicated from a community, the R0 should be below one. At present, it stands at 0.5 for Australia.

(Representative Image: Reuters)

Still a long battle

Despite the relatively positive prediction of the Australian Coronavirus model, experts have warned that if the social distancing measures are loosened, the number of infected will rise again.

This basically means that such measures need to be maintained to keep the virus at bay and life as we knew it might not be coming back to normal anytime soon.

The model is not accurate enough to predict when the virus would be eliminated in the community. The best guess experts have is that normalcy, or the complete eradication of the virus, might still be months away.