Sea-Level Rise Could Be Much Worse Than Predicted, Scientists Warn Of Doom For Coastal Cities

With increased global emissions due to human activities, sea-level rise will be much worse than what was predicted earlier. As per a new survey, more than a 100 specialists on the topic believe that this could be as bad as more than 1 metre of sea-level rise by 2100.

Led by scientists at the Nanyang Technological University in Singapore with global support, the survey has been published in the journal Nature. It records the views of 106 specialists chosen on the basis of their experience in the field. The criteria for their selection for the survey was that they must have published at least six peer-reviewed papers on the subject in major academic journals.

It is easy to assume that if the best in the field are commonly suggesting an impending doom, the world should better listen to them.

The experts explain the estimated sea level rise through two scenarios. One, where increasing global emissions lead to 4.5 C of temperature above pre-industrial levels. In this case, the surface of the world¡¯s oceans will rise by 0.6 to 1.3 metres by 2100 in comparison with their levels today. This is a potential threat to hundreds of millions of people living in coastal cities.

(Representative Image: Reuters)

A more optimistic approach is when humans manage to cut down on the global emissions to a temperature increase of only 2 C over the century. In this case, the sea-level rise will be 0.5 metre which will still be manageable to much extent.

Both the cases, however, widely deviate from what the UN intergovernmental panel on climate change (IPCC) predicts - a 1.1-metre rise by 2100. The difference lies in the fact that the IPCC works through consensus among scientific working groups, leading to conservative results.

The impact

As per the experts cited in the survey, coastal cities around the world will be the hardest hit with this sea-rise. More notably, they will be adversely affected much before than what was earlier predicted by the United Nations. Going from bad to worse, the sea-level can potentially rise up to a height of 5 metres by 2300. Some of these cities may have to be ¡°abandoned altogether as they cannot be defended,¡± said co-author Stefan Rahmstorf, from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research in Germany.

(Representative Image: Reuters)

The pessimistic evaluations of the situation arise from growing concerns around the world¡¯s two biggest ice sheets in Antarctica and Greenland. Satellite and on-the-ground data show these regions are ¡°melting faster than most computer models predicted,¡± as per a report by The Guardian.

The only way out is to reduce the global emissions.

The lockdowns being experienced globally due to the COVID-19 pandemic have helped. As mobility and industrial activities come to a halt, global emissions have taken a massive hit and have been much under the desired threshold.

Experts believe that the situation might be temporary though. Till the time specific measures to tackle climate change are not taken head on, such temporary stops would not be of much use in the long run.