Earthquake Of Magnitude 8.5 Could Hit Himalayan Region 'Anytime In The Future,' Warn Scientists
A team of scientists has published a new study saying that an earthquake of magnitude 85 or higher is due to strike the central Himalayas anytime. The study which was published in the Geological Journal was led by seismologist CP Rajendran of Jawaharlal Nehru Centre for Advanced Scientific Research in Bengaluru. The researchers have based their study on geological data and maps released by the Geological Survey of India and Google Earth.
A massive earthquake is due to strike the great Himalayan region, scientists have warned. A team of scientists has published a new study saying that an earthquake of magnitude 8.5 or higher is due to strike the central Himalayas anytime.
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The study which was published in the Geological Journal was led by seismologist C.P. Rajendran of Jawaharlal Nehru Centre for Advanced Scientific Research in Bengaluru.
While the central Himalayas experiences low-intensity earthquakes, there has been no major earthquake in the past few centuries. This, the researchers said, indicates that there is an enormous build-up of strain in the region.
"An earthquake of magnitude 8.5 or more is overdue in this part of the Himalayas, given the long-elapsed time," the lead researcher, CP Rajendran, told IANS.
IANS reported that the researchers have based their study on geological data and maps released by the Geological Survey of India and Google Earth as well as imagery from space agency Isro's Cartosat-1 satellite.
The analysis, the researchers say, ¡°compels us to conclude that a great earthquake of magnitude 8.5 or more that occurred between 1315 and 1440 had unzipped a stretch of about 600 km (the length of central seismic gap from Bhatpur to beyond Mohana Khola) in the central Himalayas with an average slip (or displacement) of 15 metres¡±.
The present study underlines the fact after this massive earthquake, the frontal thrust in the central Himalayas (covering parts of India and eastern Nepal) has remained seismically quiet for 600 to 700 years, implying enormous build-up of strain in the region.
"An earthquake of magnitude 8.5 or more is overdue in this part of the Himalayas, given the long-elapsed time.
"Considering this potentially high seismic risk, this will be particularly catastrophic for a region marked by an ever-growing population and unhindered expansion of the built-up environment, to be contrasted with poor preparedness to meet this contingency," Rajendran said.
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Roger Bilham, a US geophysicist at the University of Colorado whose years of work laid the basis for the current knowledge about earthquakes in the Himalayan region, fully supports the Indian researchers¡¯ findings.
"They are undeniably correct in concluding that should an earthquake occur now, its magnitude could equal 8.5," Bilham added.
¡°My own evaluation of the available evidence suggests their estimate is conservative, and should the rupture zone extend from east of Almora to west of Pockara (Nepal) the earthquake will exceed 8.7,¡± he added.
Scientists are also studying the impact of the 2015 Nepal earthquake that killed almost 9,000 people and was of magnitude 8.1. The 2001 Gujarat earthquake also killed more than 13,000 people and measured 7.7 on the Richter Scale.
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Inputs: Priyanshi Mathur
