As Per An Epidemiologist, COVID-19 Cases To Peak In India In Mid-July If Lockdown Is Lifted

With India easing lockdown restrictions, citizens are expecting it to be lifted altogether, after June 1. However, according to a public health expert and epidemiologist, Giridhara R Babu, India may witness coronavirus cases peaking in mid-July if that happens, as reported by Times of India.

However, Mr Babu, who is also a professor and head of life course epidemiology at the Public Health Foundation of India, added that it is expected to be a 'lower surge' thanks to the strict containment measures that have been applied in the last two months.

He also said that presently, the country is at a lower trajectory when it comes to COVID-19 deaths as compared to other countries, since India has contained the transmission of the virus to a great extent.

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He told PTI, "If the lockdown is lifted on May 30, then we will have peak around mid-July because if you take three incubations period, which is one-and-half months, that will be enough for you to know how the disease spreads when nothing is controlled."

He added, "But nothing-is-controlled never happens in India now because even if you let people to be free today they don't do things that they used to do because of phobia. So, we will have probably a lower surge compared to what we would have had if nothing was done from the beginning."

Mr Babu has also worked with the World Health Organisation for about six years and he said that syndromic surveillance should be done, especially in areas such as Delhi, Mumbai and Kolkata along with more testing.

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While Mr Babu worked with the WHO, he helped in stopping polio transmission in Karnataka. He also said, "We have to prevent transmission going from urban to rural. My sense is we will continue with the lower trajectory. Only thing is we should not let our guard down now. We should continue with the same seriousness with which we started."

He mentioned how Bengaluru isn't as affected as Delhi or Mumbai, since the Karnataka capital enforced strict measures quite early. He said, "In the low-burden areas, the population is scattered, and you wouldn't expect the same kind of surge that you would see in Mumbai or in any crowded area. As we move ahead, our areas of focus will still be cities where overcrowding is generally the case."

Strict measures should be a must in densely populated areas. Since slums are overcrowded, containment measures should be strictly followed. He stressed that social distancing and reduced movement is a must, in order to maintain lower trajectory.

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Mr Babu is trained in epidemiology (MPH and PhD) from the University of California Los Angeles (UCLA).