On February 28, the United Nations issued an alarming climate report revealing how the world is failing to do enough to combat climate change. The latest report on the effects of climate change on people and the environment reads like an atlas of human and planetary suffering. Climate change is already deadly with extreme weather, according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report.?
And in the following 18 years, the planet will become sicker, hungrier, poorer, gloomier, and far more deadly. The report also highlights that nearly half of the world's population is highly vulnerable to climate change.
The IPCC Working Group II's second report, titled "Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability," finds that the risk of climate change is increasing, adding to ecological threats such as wildfires, heat waves, and rising sea levels, displacing people from their homes and harming their health.?
Furthermore, if emissions are not controlled rapidly, worldwide human-induced heat and humidity will generate conditions that are beyond human tolerance. India would be one of the countries affected by these unbearable conditions.
The report refers to wet-bulb temperature, which accounts for both heat and humidity, unlike conventional temperature measurements. It illustrates the implications of that combination on the human body's ability to cool down. The term "wet bulb" refers to a measurement method in which a wet cloth is wrapped around the end of a thermometer to see how much evaporation can lower the temperature.
As the air around becomes more humidified, the body's ability to sweat decreases, making it more difficult to cool off. As a result, dry heat feels more bearable than severe humidity. "If the wet-bulb temperature reading is higher than our body temperature, that means we can't cool ourselves to a temperature that humans can tolerate by evaporating sweat, and that basically means you can't survive," said Tapio Schneider, a climate scientist and professor at the California Institute of Technology.
A wet-bulb temperature of 31 degrees Celsius is exceedingly harmful to humans, while a temperature of 35 degrees is unsurvivable for more than six hours, even for fit and healthy individuals sitting in the shade. Even at lower temperatures, the heat can be fatal, especially for the elderly, children, and anyone performing rigorous physical labour.
According to research cited by the UN organisation in its report, currently, wet-bulb temperatures in India rarely reach 31 degrees, with most of the country seeing maximum wet-bulb temperatures of 25-30 degrees.
Many regions of northern and coastal India would attain extremely unsafe wet-bulb temperatures of over 31 degrees by the end of the century if emissions are decreased just to the levels now promised. Wet-bulb temperatures will approach or exceed the 35-degree limit across much of India if emissions continue to rise.
According to the study, under RCP8.5 (high emissions scenario), Lucknow and Patna are among the cities predicted to reach wet-bulb temperatures of 35 degrees by the end of the century if emissions continue to rise, while Bhubaneswar, Chennai, Mumbai, Indore, and Ahmedabad are all predicted to reach wet-bulb temperatures of 32-34 degrees if emissions continue to rise.
RCP stands for ¡®Representative Concentration Pathway¡¯. The RCP forecasts how greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere will vary in the future as a result of human activity. Four RCPs range from very high (RCP8.5) to very low (RCP2.6) in future concentrations. The RCPs' numerical numbers (2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5) relate to concentrations in the year 2100.
Consequently, Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, Haryana, West Bengal, Jharkhand, Meghalaya, Tripura, Odisha, Chhattisgarh, and Punjab will be the hardest hit, but if emissions continue to rise, by the end of the century, all Indian states will have areas with wet-bulb temperatures of 30 degrees or higher.
In South Asia, especially India, strong heat waves of longer duration and frequency are forecasted. At the city level, these forecasts might have a big impact: at 1.5 degrees, Kolkata will annually get heat equivalent to the 2015 record heat waves, and under two degrees warming. Extreme heat has a disproportionately negative impact on cities with the poorest populations and limited access to green spaces.
If governments meet their existing emission-cutting targets, global sea levels will likely increase from 44 cm to 76 cm this century. The increase could be limited to 28cm-55cm if emissions are reduced more rapidly. However, if emissions grow faster than projected and ice sheets melt faster than expected, sea levels might rise by as much as two metres this century.
Due to saltwater intrusion, more land will be submerged, flooded on a regular basis, degraded, or become unfit for agriculture as sea levels rise.
In terms of the population that will be affected by sea-level rise, India is one of the most susceptible countries on the planet. According to a study cited in the IPCC report, roughly 35 million people in India might face yearly coastal flooding by the middle of the century, with 45-50 million in danger by the end of the century if emissions are high ¡ª with far fewer at risk if emissions are reduced.
India's economic expenses of rising sea levels and river flooding would be among the greatest in the world. According to another study referenced in the report, direct damage is expected to be between 24 billion dollars if emissions are decreased only about as quickly as currently planned, and 36 billion dollars if emissions are high and ice sheets remain unstable.
The report highlights, that India's GDP per capita has been 16 per cent lower than it would have been without human-caused warming since 1991. Every tonne of carbon dioxide generated globally costs India about 86 dollars, making it the country most economically damaged by climate change.
Continued warming will cause havoc on India's economy, especially if emissions are not lowered rapidly. Heat lowers labour capability, especially in agriculture: According to an analysis cited in the report, agricultural labour capacity in India would decline by 17% if global warming continues to 3 degrees ¡ª just a little more than current forecast emissions ¡ª or by 11% if emission cuts are expedited.
Human susceptibility to environmental hazards is determined by a variety of social, economic, historical, and political factors that operate at multiple scales. People living in these hotspot locations are projected to suffer substantial consequences as a result of climate change, as observed by losses in food crop yields, disasters such as floods, seasonal water availability fluctuations, and other systemic effects.
"For example, extreme climatic conditions in South Asia are affecting food security, making agro-based economies like India and Pakistan the most vulnerable to climate change in this regard," the study said.
The research referenced in the IPCC report states that climate change and increased demand will cause around 40% of Indians to experience water scarcity by 2050, compared to nearly 33% presently. Climate change will cause higher flooding in the Ganga and Brahmaputra river basins, particularly if the temperature exceeds 1.5 degrees Celsius. These variables, together with saltwater intrusion from rising sea levels, are predicted to disrupt crop production and create price spikes in India, posing a danger to food affordability, food security, and economic growth.
The report also warned that the major projected impacts of climate change in the agriculture and food sector include a decline in fisheries, aquaculture, and crop production, particularly in South and Southeast Asia, a reduction in livestock production in Mongolia, and changes in the crop, farming systems, and crop areas in almost all regions, all of which have negative implications for food security.
Watch this video explainer:
For more on news and current affairs from around the world please visit Indiatimes News.