Fourth Wave Of COVID In India? Experts Are Divided As Stealth Omicron Spreads Across The World
Several countries across the world are currently experiencing what appears to be another wave of COVID-19.
China, where the COVID-19 outbreak was first reported in 2019, recorded two deaths on Saturday (March 19).
This is the first time since January 2021, COVID-19 deaths have been reported in mainland China.
With this, China's official death toll in the pandemic has gone up to 4,638.
China's National Health Commission said both deaths occurred in Jilin, the northeastern province which has been hardest-hit in the current wave, triggered by the Omicron subvariant, known as BA2.
Other than China, South Korea, UK, Finland, Switzerland, Netherlands and Italy have also seen a spike in new infections.
The WHO has called the current surge, the tip of the iceberg.
In India, where the third wave of COVID-19 has subsided and the daily infections are in the 2000s, there are still concerns about another surge.
According to Dr. Subhash Salunkhe, former director general of health services in Maharashtra India will see a fourth wave of COVID-19.
?¡°We cannot lower our guard as the fourth wave is imminent in India like it has happened in the rest of the world.¡± Dr. Salunkhe told The Times of India, ¡°The only thing that is unknown about the fourth wave is when exactly will it occur and how severe will it be.¡±
Eminent virologist Dr. T Jacob John, however, said he is "fairly confident" that no fourth wave will occur in the country unless an unexpected variant that behaves differently comes up.
"Taking all the available information in India -- epidemiological and virus variants -- and the global trend, we can be fairly confident that no fourth wave will occur, notwithstanding erudite mathematical model predictions. The model methodology is not valid in this situation," he said.
John, the former director of the Indian Council for Medical Research's Centre of Advanced Research in Virology, said it can be confidently concluded that the third wave has ended and the country has entered an endemic phase once again.
"I say (entered endemic phase) since my own definition of an endemic state is 'low and steady daily numbers, with only minor fluctuations, if any, for at least four weeks'. My personal expectation, hence opinion, is that we will be in the endemic phase for more than four weeks. All states in India show the same trend, giving me this confidence," he told PTI.
According to the recent modelling study by researchers at the Indian Institute of Technology-Kanpur, the fourth wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in India may start around June 22 and peak from mid to late August.
The study used a statistical model to make the prediction, finding that the possible new wave will last for four months.
The research led by Sabara Parshad Rajeshbhai, Subhra Sankar Dhar and Shalabh of IIT Kanpur, also noted that there is always a fair chance that a possible new variant of coronavirus may have an intense impact on the whole analysis.
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