Fourth COVID Wave May Hit India In June, To Continue For About 4 Months, Warns IIT-Kanpur Study

The third wave of the pandemic driven by the Omicron variant seems to be flattening in India but a new study suggests it's not time to relax yet.

India is likely to witness the fourth covid wave in mid to late June, and the surge is to continue for about 4 months, a recent study by a team of IIT Kanpur scientists has suggested.

The severity, however, will depend on the nature of the variant, the vaccination status across the country.

Reuters

The study led by Sabara Parshad Rajeshbhai, Subhra Sankar Dhar, and Shalabh of IIT Kanpur's Mathametic department used a mixture of Gaussian distribution based on the data on Zimbabwe.

The yet-to-be peer-reviewed study has been published as a pre-print in MedRxiv

Will India face fourth COVID wave?

According to the study, the data indicates that the fourth wave of COVID-19 in India will arrive after 936 days from the initial data availability date, which is January 30, 2020.

¡°Therefore, the fourth wave starts from June 22, 2022, reaching its peak on August 23, 2022, and ends on October 24, 2022," they said and also added, ¡°Moreover, the 99% confidence interval for the date, when the curve will reach the peak, is approximately from August 15, 2022, to August 31, 2022."

BCCL

The authors of the study noted that the intensity of the impact will depend on various factors like infectibility, fatality, etc.

Apart from this fact, the effect of vaccinations - first, second, or booster dosage may also play a significant role in the possibility of infection, degree of infection, and various issues related to the fourth wave, they added.

Another study has indicated that the next COVID variant can emerge in two different ways. However, there is no guarantee that the new variant will be less severe than the previously identified ones.

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