2021 Kerala Experience Taught Us Why We Can't Afford To Relax Amid Pandemic
In 2020 Kerala stood out from the rest of India, in the early days of COVID-19 as the state was able to largely contain the spread of the infection among its people, despite its high population density and a large number of expats whose return at one point contributed the largest chunk of the daily infections there.
But, Kerala could not maintain its tight grip on COVID-19 control in the second wave in 2021 and one by one the wall started crumbling.
As we reach the tail end of 2021, Kerala is the second worst-hit state, in both the number of cases and deaths.?
Currently, Kerala has the highest number of active cases and accounts for nearly half of the daily infections reported in India.
What went wrong?
In late 2020 and early 2021, when the COVID-19 curve in India was on the downward slide, Kerala, much like the rest of India, was in a rush to return to normalcy, and in the process, safety precautions like social distancing and face mask took a backseat.
This led to the resurgence of COVID-19 in India and the second wave which was driven by the deadly delta strain hit the country.??
In Kerala, the second wave of COVID-19 was from late May and plateaued in August-September.
The cases have since come down, Kerala is still reporting over 2,000 new infections a day, and the curve is showing a downward trend.
Assembly elections
It was not just the pandemic fatigue that led to people violating COVID-19 safety norms in Kerala. Deciding to go ahead with the assembly election in five states earlier this year, was one of the most controversial decisions the Election Commission had taken.
Kerala was one of the five states that went to the polls and during the multi-phase vote and high-pitch election campaigns, social distancing went for a toss. By the time polls closed Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan, former CM Oommen Chandy and several other candidates had tested positive for COVID-19.
Low infection rate in the first wave
In July, seroprevalence data from the state showed that just over 40 per cent of the state's population had antibodies, either from a previous infection or from vaccination. In contrast, other states like Madhya Pradesh had a seroprevalence of close to 80.
This meant that more than half of Kerala's population was still vulnerable. Kerala Health Minister Veena George had said that the state's success in containing the spread of COVID-19 had resulted in low seroprevalence.
Unvaccinated drove up the death rate
Data by the Kerala Health Department showed that out of the 9,195 people who died due to the pandemic disease from June 18 to September 3, 2021 only 905 (9.84%) were vaccinated.
About 700 persons who died had taken only one dose of the vaccine. Among the dead, only 200 persons had taken both doses of the vaccine. It also pointed out that most of these dead had other serious ailments.
Not all bad
Given how things went south in Kerala, it is easy to write off the Kerala model as a failure, but it is not. It still is one of the best out there and something that other states will struggle to reach. Kerala still conducts the highest number of tests per million population, which the government says is detecting more infections than those missed.
During the peak of the second wave when hospitals were getting flooded with patients, way more than they could accommodate, there was no shortage of hospital beds and treatment in Kerala.
Unlike many other states, Kerala also did not face a medical oxygen shortage, and on the contrary, had a surplus.?
Despite having the second-highest death toll, Kerala's COVID-19 fatality rate is still below the 1 per cent mark and the national average of 1.4%.
As the vaccine availability improved, Kerala also made significant progress in its immunisation drive. More than 2 crore adults in Kerala have been fully vaccinated and 2.6 crores have got at least one dose.
Lessons for India in 2022
As Omicron cases in India are rising and is predicted to spiral out of control in the coming weeks and months, resulting in the third wave of COVID-19, India can learn from Kerala's mistakes and what the state got right in 2021.
One of these is - holding elections during a pandemic is probably not a good idea.
2022 is going to be the year of elections and a prelude for 2024. Uttar Pradesh, Punjab, Goa and Uttarakhand are set to go to the polling booth in the next couple of months. But the high-stakes battle will be taking place around the same time Omicron is predicted to spike in India. If 2020 is anything to go by there will be an explosion of cases linked to the polls.
Another key takeaway is vaccines save lives - The sheer disparity when it comes to the death toll among the vaccinated and unvaccinated in Kerala should be an eyeopener for the rest of India to get vaccinated at the earliest, including booster doses, if and when it is available.
Hospital infrastructure in Kerala is also something that other states can take a cue from, though it can't be done overnight. So far, Omicron infections have been mild, and not many required hospitalisation. But this could change in the coming days when cases explode and in such a scenario, it is up to the states to prepare an adequate number of hospital beds and other facilities ready.
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