Turkey's elections need more sociological and anthropological questions than just political and policy-centric questions. This election is not just about Erdogan and his growing influence over Turkey's political future. It is also about how and where the Turkish voters relate themselves with the existing political alternatives. Here are five key?questions about how the Sunday election should be understood.
AFP
The AK Party is like India's Congress Party where diverse sections of the society have joined hands to remain in power. Its ideological and conservative identity is mostly overshadowed by a more assertive middle class or the Anatolian bourgeoisie. Their ability to accommodate the largest division of the society, including a significant section of the secular vote, is still their main strength. In this election, nationalism should have been the main card, but it has already been grabbed by the AKP. Now, the seculars and liberals speaking against Syrian refugees and promising to send them back are looking very odd. The AKP's main anxiety is the declining value of Lira. Whether any opposition president can fix it immediately may not convince many voters. So, the stability and continuity remain a better choice for many of them.
AP
The main opposition party was,?untill now, close to India's BJP in its ideological rigidity. But in this election, they have recognised the social dynamics by accepting their main Islamic rivals into their alliance. Its candidate is displaying every sign of his respect for religion, scarf, poor people, and staying away from Kemalist hardline secular narratives once used to divide the conservatives and secularists. Muharram Ince, the CHP presidential candidate, has received huge attention in this campaign. He is a Kemalist with a difference. He has been able to connect with people, speak popular sentiments and stay away from any big controversy. He frequently visiting mosques, taking selfies with scarf wearing women and common people. But in the game of populism, he is still new. Moreover, he has to remain ambivalent on CHP's secular fundamentalist past, many conservative Turks fear, Ince's victory may bring back those repressive days. He is not like Erdogan, who had rebelled against his own Islamist party to become moderate in 2002. Perhaps no secular so far has staged such a rebellion to become moderate secular.?
AP
The leftist Kurdish party, HDP, had a great beginning in 2015, but they fell in the?trap of their own militant leadership, the PKK, and became once again a party of only the Kurds. Now, the leadership is once again trying to correct its course and has developed an inclusive political agenda, for all Turks and Kurds on the basis of equality. But they seem to have lost the best opportunity by not proving credibly their disassociation with the PKK. As a result, the leftist Kurdish vote may transfer to the CHP.
The biggest question to understand Turkey's voting behaviour should be who really are the seculars, conservatives, and ethnic minorities? In CHP, the main secular party's campaign, a large number of scarf-wearing "conservative looking" women are visible. In AK Party's campaign, a large number of "modern looking" women are present. There are many religious and conservative Kurds who vote unpredictably.?
AFP
This election talk is more focused on teenagers who have no lived-memory of pre-AKP economic problems but they are super active on social media. Where will they go? Apparently, there is so much anti-AK party sentiments among teenagers according to some social media studies. But, in the election campaigns, you will find more young faces in AK Party's rallies, and counters. Whether AK party's lower presence in social media is also a social reality, I can't co-relate it. Also true is the fact that Turkey's family structures are still strong and teenagers indeed get influenced by their families' political choices.
AP
The issues that may work or backfire are many. Too much focusing on Erdogan's personality may not a winnable strategy. Erdogan has his personal social and political capital beyond the AK Party. So the vote for parliament, need a more diverse agenda which remains diluted in opposition leaders' speeches. Playing an anti- Syrian refugee card can actually backfire in Turkey. At best it may work only in few constituencies. There is still a general sympathy sentiment for the Syrians. On foreign policy, the opposition's perspective is not much different from Erdogan's. For example, they said they will cut off trade relations with Israel, will bring Fethullah Gulen back, etc. Economic problems and the emergency are the main issues dominate their speeches. Erdogan under pressure of a mounting opposition has declared to lift the emergency in the first month of his victory.?
This election, no matter who wins, has founded a new political basis against the AK Party which offers to rebrand the CHP as a good AK Party that Erdogan has once promoted in 2002.? Even if the CHP Presidential candidate does not win, as most of the polls suggest, his party and the alliance will be in different Avtar.
Dr Omair Anas is an Assistant Professor at Ankara Yildirim Beyazit University, Ankara, Turkey.?
The opinions expressed in the article are the personal opinions of the author.?