Explained: How Russia's Ukraine Invasion Complicates The Iran Nuclear Deal?

Russia's invasion of Ukraine has cast doubt on international efforts to resurrect the 2015 Iran nuclear deal, just as global mediators were about to announce a breakthrough. Negotiators appeared to be on the verge of completing a revived nuclear deal with Iran, as well as lifting sanctions.

Over nearly a year of meetings in Austria, negotiators from the United States, Europe, Russia, China, and Iran had largely succeeded in isolating themselves from external crises across the world. However, international censure of Russia and a globally coordinated sanctions regime ¨C which is increasingly targeting Russia's oil exports, its primary financial artery ¨C are resonating in Vienna's conference rooms.

What Is the Iran Nuclear Deal?

In July 2015, Iran and numerous international powers, including the United States, the United Kingdom, China, Russia, France, and Germany (together known as P5+1), struck a historic deal known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). In exchange for billions of dollars in sanctions relief, Iran pledged to destroy much of its nuclear programme and open its sites to more thorough international inspections.

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Proponents of the agreement claimed that it would help avoid a revival of Iran's nuclear weapons programme, reducing the likelihood of conflict between Iran and its regional enemies, such as Israel and Saudi Arabia. However, since President Donald Trump removed the US from the agreement in 2018, the accord has been in risk.

Iran allegedly resumed some nuclear activity in retribution for the US exit and for lethal attacks on prominent Iranians in 2020, including one by the US. President Joe Biden stated in 2021 that if Iran returns to compliance, the US will rejoin the agreement.

What were the goals and what did Iran agree to?

According to reports, the P5+1 planned to slow down Iran's nuclear development to the point where pursuing a nuclear weapon would take at least a year, giving international powers time to respond. In the run-up to the JCPOA talks, US intelligence agencies predicted that if no agreement was reached, Iran could create enough nuclear material for a weapon in a relatively short time. Iran's efforts to become a nuclear-weapons state alarmed negotiating nations, who feared a new crisis in the region.

Iran stopped working on nuclear weapons in 2003, according to US intelligence analysts, but continued to collect nuclear technology and experience. Following President Hassan Rouhani's victory in 2013, who was viewed as a reformer, the parties reached a preliminary agreement to guide negotiations towards a comprehensive settlement.

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As a part of the deal, Iran pledged not to manufacture highly enriched uranium or plutonium that may be used in nuclear weapons. It also made measures to ensure that its facilities in Fordow, Natanz, and Arak were only used for civilian purposes, including as medical and industrial research. The agreement restricts the number and types of centrifuges Iran can use, as well as the amount of enrichment and the size of its enriched uranium stockpile.

Iran promised to eventually implement a protocol allowing the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), the UN's nuclear watchdog, unrestricted access to its nuclear facilities and possibly undeclared sites. The inspections are meant to prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons in secret, as it has purportedly attempted in the past. The IAEA has produced quarterly reports to its board of governors and the UN Security Council on Iran's nuclear commitments.

The Joint Commission, which comprises representatives from all of the negotiating parties, oversees the agreement's implementation and resolves any issues that may emerge.

What did the other signatories agree to?

The EU, the United Nations (UN), and the US have all agreed to suspend their nuclear-related sanctions against Iran. However, many other US sanctions against Iran remained in place, some dating back to the 1979 hostage crisis. They address issues like Iran's ballistic missile development, support for terrorist organisations, and human rights violations.

After five years, the parties agreed to lift a UN ban on Iran transferring conventional weapons and ballistic missiles if the IAEA certifies that Iran is only involved in civilian nuclear activity.

Russia connects the Iran deal to Ukraine sanctions

Now, after eleven months of talks, negotiators appear to be close to reviving the 2015 Iran nuclear deal, which removed sanctions in exchange for Iran's nuclear programme being curtailed. However, the talks have been delayed by Russia's last-minute demand for "formal guarantees" from the US that broad Western sanctions targeting Moscow for its invasion of Ukraine would not harm its economic and military cooperation with Iran.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov told the media, "We seek assurances that these sanctions would have no influence on the JCPOA's commercial, economic, and investment relations regime."

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Russia's demand was swiftly rejected by the US, with Secretary of State Antony Blinken declaring that such requests are "irrelevant" and that sanctions against Russia for its invasion of Ukraine "have nothing to do with the Iran nuclear deal."

Iran stated that it was seeking clarity from Russia on the nature of their requests. "We're still waiting for additional details from Moscow," Saeed Khatibzadeh, a spokesman for the Foreign Ministry, told the press on Monday.

Meanwhile, Western nations advised Moscow on Tuesday not to jeopardise the nearly finished deal to bring the US and Iran back into compliance with the agreement.

Britain, France, and Germany said in a joint declaration to the 35-nation board of governors of the UN nuclear watchdog, "The time is running out to seize this opportunity. We urge all parties to take the steps necessary to complete the agreement as soon as possible, and we urge Russia not to add any additional conditions to the agreement's conclusion"

Complicated situation for Tehran?

For months, diplomats from Iran and other world countries have been meeting in Vienna to try to restore the 2015 nuclear deal. Along with the United Kingdom, China, France, and Germany, Moscow is a direct participant in the ongoing discussions in Vienna. Former President Donald Trump withdrew from the pact in 2018, therefore Washington is only indirectly involved.

Iran and the UN nuclear watchdog said on Saturday that they had reached an agreement on a strategy for resolving concerns critical to the agreement's revival. If fully implemented, the accord will bring the US and Iran back into line with the original agreement, the JCPOA.

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According to the watchdog, Iran would undoubtedly reap enormous economic benefits as a result of the agreement, which will allow the country to freely sell oil and gas and access the global banking system. In exchange, Tehran will limit uranium enrichment and accept international inspections and other nuclear-related restrictions.

However, a last-minute Russian demand could make reaching an agreement more difficult. "Tehran, in my opinion, is currently in a very complicated situation. The Islamic Republic has spent decades attempting to portray Russia as a friend or at the very least a strategic partner, and admitting openly that they have been played by the Russians would result in a massive public response "Azizi, an SWP specialist, stated.