Explained: Possible Consequences Of Russia Suspending Its Participation From The Grain Deal

Russia has said it would immediately take back its participation in the UN-brokered grain deal - Black Sea Grain Initiative. The country has alleged that Ukraine attacked its fleet ships in the Black Sea through drones launched from the occupied Crimean coast.

After Russia's announcement, US President Joe Biden predicted an increase in global hunger, as the deal allowed a safe passage to ships that carried Ukrainian grain.

Reuters

What was the grain deal about?

Until now, the grain deal brokered by the UN has facilitated 9M tonnes of grain safely leaving the Ukrainian coast in 397 ships. According to the UN, this grain deal has also helped bring down international food prices by 15% from their peak in March. The deal was signed in July and was set to be renewed in November.

Earlier, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said he was expecting this move of suspension by Russia. He alleged that Russia has constantly been trying to worsen the food crisis for a few months now. He further informed that about 176 ships containing grain could not leave the Ukrainian coast.

In his nightly address for the Ukrainian citizens on Saturday, Zelensky said that the food in the halted ships is meant for about 7 million people and that it is unfair for a few people sitting in the Kremlin to decide when this food reaches the needy.

Reuters

What will be the further consequences of Russia's move?

Suppose Russia doesn't reverse its decision to halt the grain deal. In that case, developing nations will have to look for new suppliers and spend more money to import grains from Australia, Argentina, and the USA. It is because these nations are having a bad crop season due to drought or excessive rain. On the other hand, small wheat exporters like India and Brazil have seized the opportunity and increased their exports.

AFP

A former Chief Economist of the US Department of Agriculture said Ukraine was responsible for at least 10% of global wheat exports, and filling this void will be difficult, especially in the absence of big crop yields in other producer countries.

What did the international community say?

In addition, Russia's move has been facing flak from international players. The EU's Chief of Foreign Policy, Josep Borrell, urged Russia to rethink its decision. The spokesman of the United Nations Secretary-General, Stephane Dujarric, has also informed that the UN is in touch with the Russian leadership about its decision. They have stressed that each party in the deal mustn't take any action that may harm the whole world.

AFP

As per the Washington-based think tank, Institute for the Study of War, Russia had been trying to induce conditions to withdraw its participation from the agreement for the past few months. The organization also added that even if Ukraine did attack Russia's Black Sea Fleet, it would only be an appropriate answer to Russia's recent bombing attacks on Ukrainian civilians and infrastructure.

Until now, missile attacks from Russia have damaged 40% of the Ukrainian electric system and consequently induced several blackouts. These attacks are still happening, and Russia is now trying to capture the Ukrainian city of Bakhmut.

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