Explained: What¡¯s Behind The Russia-Ukraine Crisis And Why War Looks Imminent

Russia has been tightening its military grip around Ukraine since 2021, building up troops, equipment and artillery on the country's borders. More than 1,50,000 Russian troops now encircle Ukraine on three sides, according to estimates from US and Ukrainian intelligence officials.

Both Ukraine and the West have accused Russia of backing the separatists in the eastern part of Ukraine through these actions.

Reuters

The mass deployment of troops near the Russia-Ukraine border has sparkled the apprehensions of an impending war between the two countries and possible annexation of Ukraine.

What set the stage for the crisis?

According to the media reports, Ukraine's exit from the Soviet Union had set the stage for the present crisis. The first blow to the Russia-Ukraine relation came in the form of the Orange Revolution. These were the peaceful protests which took place in the winter of 2004.

Sputnik

The protest succeeded in preventing an allegedly Russian-backed candidate Viktor Yanukovych from winning the Ukrainian presidency and made possible the election of his reformist rival, Viktor Yushchenko.

In early 2014, mass protests in the Ukrainian capital Kyiv known as Euromaidan forced out another allegedly Russia-friendly President after he refused to sign an European Union (EU) association agreement. To this, Russia responded by annexing the Ukrainian peninsula of Crimea and allegedly backing a separatist rebellion in Ukraine's east, which subsequently seized control in the part of its Donbas region. Russia dismissed the accusations saying Russians who joined the separatists in Eastern Ukraine were 'volunteers'.

As a result of this Russia became the receiving end of numerous sanctions and condemnation from the EU and the USA.

History of Peace-Building Sanctions and Agreements

The Minsk Protocol (Minsk I) was signed in September 2014 by the Trilateral Contact Group, which included Ukraine, Russia, and the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE). It was a12-point ceasefire agreement that included things like weapon removal, prisoner exchanges, and humanitarian aid, among other things. However, the agreement was broken due to violations on both sides.

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In 2015, the parties signed another protocol, known as Minsk II. This included provisions that would give rebel-controlled areas more power.

However, despite the Minsk Peace Agreement, the two countries are yet to resolve the issue in the Donbas region. The deliberation stands stalled as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky recently stated that he does not like a single point of the Minsk accords. To this Putin responded as, "Like it or don't like it, it's your duty, my beauty,".

What led to the recent tension?

The roots of the current tensions grew from Ukraine¡¯s separation from the Soviet Union and ties with the West. Following the dissolution of the Soviet Union, North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) extended eastward, eventually encompassing the majority of Europe's former communist countries. Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia, all of which were originally part of the Soviet Union, joined NATO, as did Poland, Romania, and others.

As a result, NATO, an alliance which was formed to counter the Soviet Union, moved hundreds of miles closer to Moscow, bordering Russia directly. In 2008, NATO indicated to enlist Ukraine someday.

Agency

"Russia cannot stop Ukraine from getting closer with NATO and has no right to have any say in relevant discussions," Ukrainian Foreign Ministry.

Ukraine too wants to join NATO, which Russian President Vladimir Putin perceives as a direct threat to Russia's power in the east. Putin sees NATO's growth as menacing, and the idea of Ukraine joining it as a threat to his country's existence. Russia's concerns about NATO have become more strident as the country has grown more assertive and militarily stronger.

NATO¡¯S role in the crisis?

In November 2021, satellite images indicated a build-up of 1,00,000 Russian troops and significant military equipment along the pro-West Ukrainian border. By the end of December 2021, Russia published an eight-point proposed security agreement for the West. The draft was created with the aim of addressing European tensions, especially the Ukrainian conflict.

However, it included controversial clauses such as prohibiting Ukraine from joining NATO, limiting NATO's future expansion, and restricting drills in the region, among others.

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Talks on the draft have repeatedly failed and tension escalated with the Russian force build-up Russia-Ukraine Border. "We have reason to believe that Russian forces are planning and intend to attack Ukraine in the coming week, coming days," Biden says, citing an intelligence finding that is not publicly available. The crisis has been described as having the potential to cause a new "cold war" or perhaps a "third global war."

According to the latest update, Biden has agreed in-principle to hold a summit to discuss the Ukraine crisis with Putin on a condition. The White House stated that the talks proposed by France will take place only if Russia does not invade Ukraine. The proposal was announced by the French presidency after two phone calls between French President Emmanuel and Mr. Putin.

What is the Reason Behind Russia¡¯s Interest in Ukraine?

AP

Russia is concerned with the United States' and EU's efforts to enlist Ukraine in NATO's US-led military alliance and keep it out of Russian control. Russia sees NATO's increasing equipment, training, and personnel support for Ukraine as a threat to its own security. In October 2018, Ukraine participated in a series of large-scale air drills in western Ukraine with the United States and seven other NATO members.

Russia and Ukraine share strong cultural, economic, and political ties, and Ukraine is integral to Russia's identity and global outlook in many ways.

Russia has also accused Ukraine of increasing its force numbers in preparation for a takeover of the Donbas region, which Ukraine denies.

What is Next?

The crisis in Ukraine risks further deterioration of U.S-Russia relations if Russia expands its position in Ukraine or into NATO countries.

Reuters

An escalating conflict in Ukraine threatens to derail recent efforts by the US and NATO to refocus the alliance's attention on the security threat presented by China, forcing it to return to its traditional mission of safeguarding Europe and, by implication, North America.

If Russia attacks Ukraine, the US and the EU have threatened to impose harsh new sanctions on the country, in addition to the sanctions imposed after the seizure of Crimea. These new sanctions could include prohibiting Russia from pumping Russian gas through the newly built Nord Stream 2 pipeline to Germany. Nord Stream 2 is an underwater pipeline network in the Baltic Sea that stretches through eastern Europe, including Ukraine.

Concerns for India

The conflict has erupted just as India is about to complete its acquisition of the Russian S-400 missile system, for which it is hoping for a waiver of US sanctions. Both the delivery of the system and the likelihood of a presidential waiver will be affected by the crisis.

The ongoing event might bring Russia and China closer as the crisis will make Moscow more reliant on friends like China, allowing Moscow to form a regional bloc that India is not a part of. India has remained silent on the Russia-Ukraine conflict for a long time. However, The country has recently spoken out on the issue, calling for a peaceful conclusion through long-term diplomatic efforts to ensure long-term peace and stability.

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