Explained: Why ILO Has Projected Low Employment Rise In 2023

According to the International Labour Organization, global employment will only increase by 1% in 2023, and the current global economic slowdown will probably force more workers to accept lower-quality, lower-paying jobs that lack job security and social protection.

According to the ILO's World Employment and Social Outlook: Trends 2023 report, there will only be a 1% increase in global employment in 2023, which is less than half of the rate in 2022. This would result in an increase of 208 million jobs, or about 3 million jobs.

What, according to ILO, does this slowdown suggest?

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The estimated global unemployment rate is 5.8%. According to the ILO, the moderate size of the projected increase is primarily attributable to the limited labour supply in high-income countries. The organisation also noted that this would reverse the decline in global unemployment seen between 2020 and 2022.

The report noted that in addition to unemployment, job quality continues to be a major concern and that social justice cannot exist without decent work. Despite a tentative recovery in 2021, it was predicted that the ongoing lack of better job opportunities would only get worse.

Richard Samans, director of the ILO's research department and report coordinator, stated that "We don't expect the losses incurred during the COVID-19 crisis to be recovered before 2025" due to the slowdown in global employment growth.

What does the report say about the labour force?

The current slowdown, according to the report, will force many workers to accept lower quality jobs, frequently at very low pay, occasionally with insufficient hours.

Furthermore, the cost-of-living crisis runs the risk of pushing more people into poverty as prices rise faster than nominal labour incomes. This trend comes on top of the sizable income declines experienced during the COVID-19 crisis, which in many countries had the greatest impact on low-income groups, the report continued.

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According to the report, there were 473 million unfilled positions worldwide in 2022, about 33 million more than in 2019. This measure takes into account those looking for work but not doing so right now, either out of discouragement or due to other responsibilities like child care.

The ILO report suggested that the ongoing global supply chain bottlenecks, uneven pandemic recovery, and rising geopolitical tensions, including the conflict in Ukraine, are the main causes of the labour market's deterioration.

The regional variations

Due to their expanding working-age populations, the ILO predicts that Africa and the Arab states will experience employment growth of at least 3% and a declining unemployment rate in 2023.

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Annual employment growth is anticipated to be around 1% in Asia, the Pacific, Latin America, and the Caribbean, while in Northern America, there will be few or no job gains in 2023 and unemployment will increase, according to the report.

The economic effects of the conflict in Ukraine are particularly severe in Europe and Central Asia. However, despite the fact that fewer people of working age are expected to be employed in 2023, their unemployment rates should only slightly rise, according to the report.

Youth and Women

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Young people and women are doing significantly worse on the labour markets, according to ILO. In 2022, women's global labour force participation rate was 47.4%, while men's rate was 72.3%. According to the report, there are two such women for every economically inactive man due to the gap of 24.9 percentage points.

In addition, young people (aged 15 to 24) have a three times higher unemployment rate than adults, making it extremely difficult for them to find and maintain decent employment. Additionally, it was added that 23.5% or more of young people are not in employment, education, or training.