Explained: Why Staying Out Of NATO Is Emerging As A Possible Option For Ukraine In Ending The War

As peace talks between Moscow and Kyiv continue despite heavy combat, Ukraine's "neutrality" has resurfaced as Russian President Vladimir Putin's primary demand for ending the conflict.

Ukraine's president has stated that as a condition of the peace agreement with Russia, his administration is open to discussing adopting a neutral status.

Volodymyr Zelensky said in an interview with independent Russian media that any such agreement would also have to be put to a vote in Ukraine. Experts say, He's made similar remarks previously, but never with such fervour. The announcement comes as talks between both the countries are due to restart in Turkey this week.

What is a ¡®neutral status¡¯?

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After Russia invaded Crimea and Eastern Ukraine in 2014, Ukraine legally lost its neutrality. Putin's concerns prior to the conflict extended far beyond Ukraine's potential ¡ª but highly unlikely ¡ª NATO membership, and Russia may be envisioning a different kind of neutrality.

A state's neutral position in international law implies that it will not intervene in disputes concerning other belligerent parties in broad terms. Neutrality is governed by two treaties signed in 1907 at The Hague's 2nd peace summit, which established standards for neutral and belligerent nations in times of war.

A perpetually neutral power is a sovereign entity that is obligated to be neutral towards the combatants of all future conflicts by international agreement or by its own proclamation. Switzerland is a case of a perpetual neutral state. Other countries include Ireland, Austria, and others.

In exchange for the globally renowned right to stay impartial, the idea of neutrality in conflict is carefully defined and places particular limits on the neutral party.

Role of a neutral status in a peace settlement between Ukraine and Russia?

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According to the Washington Post, one of the justifications given by Putin for invading Ukraine was Kyiv's desire to join NATO.

Despite the fact that Ukraine was not in the process of entering NATO at the time of the attack, it has considered membership a priority, particularly since Moscow's invasion of Crimea in 2014.

Ukraine's Constitution was amended in 2019 to include aspirations to enter NATO and the European Union. Putin has frequently condemned NATO's "aggressive measures" near his territory and sees NATO expansion as a danger.

On March 15, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky gave a message to the chiefs of the Joint Expeditionary Force (JEF), in which he is claimed to recognise that his state's membership in the 30-nation defense pact was no longer in the cards.

"It is evident that Ukraine is not a NATO member; we recognise this...." We've heard about the seemingly open door for years, but we've also heard that we won't go through it, and these are facts that must be accepted," Zelensky added.

Ukraine is also considering not hosting any army bases or forces on its land. However, the state continues to pursue its goal of joining the European Union. On February 28, Zelensky signed a letter formally seeking for EU membership, and he has met with European leaders to discuss the potential of Kyiv joining. Experts comment that despite the fact that EU officials have expressed a willingness to Ukraine entering the union, Zelensky's dreams for a rapid membership have been dashed.

Could Ukraine change its constitution?

Any amendment would need to be approved by 300 out of 450 parliamentarians in two successive parliamentary rounds, and then the constitutional bench would have to approve it. "There aren't 300 votes today," Ukrainian political scientist Volodymyr Fesenko stated, as Washington Post reports, "but if the crisis persists and we discover that Nato isn't assisting, views may take a turn."

"Public sentiment is moving as a result of Zelenskiy's unhappiness with little NATO aid. Nato is the easiest and least expensive concession for us," he continued.

What do Ukrainians want?

As per the new survey published earlier in the month by the Rating polling agency, 44 per cent of Ukrainians believe their nation must enter NATO, down 2 percentage units from a poll taken in February just before the Russian war started. Ukraine should maintain its engagement with NATO but just not participate, according to 42% of respondents.

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"The Ukrainians want to join Nato, but if Europe provides EU membership and offers a funding deal to restore Ukraine, the Nato argument may fade away," said Mykola Davydiuk, a political expert in Kyiv, as the Guardian reported.

"Such an association will be stronger than NATO unification if Britain, France, and the United States ¡ª 3 nuclear powers ¨C offer security assurances," he continued.

On Tuesday, Ukrainian officials in Turkey linked the security assurances they seek to Article 5 of the NATO agreement, which states that members will come to each other's rescue in the event of military intervention.

The complicated questions around Ukrainian neutrality

Russia continues to shell regions and damage civilian facilities such as hospitals and theatres. As of March 25, more than 1,000 Ukrainian citizens had been confirmed dead (a figure that is expected to increase), and also more than 10.3 million individuals had been dislocated, with some around 3.9 million fleeing to foreign states.

The Russian force has also suffered a staggering number of fatalities, with NATO estimating that up to 15,000 Russian troops have been killed thus far. Meanwhile, International sanctions are choking Russia's economy, making life difficult for regular Russians.

According to experts, the costs increase with each passing day of the battle. An agreement on Ukraine's neutral status may be the best option for a cease-fire.

What other countries have a version of it?

In mid-March, during the 4th phase of talks between Russia and Ukraine, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov indicated it as part of the peace negotiations, Moscow was exploring the Austrian and Swedish forms of neutrality for Ukraine.

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Austria's status as a neutral country is a result of the Cold War. It was approved in return for the conclusion of the Allied Forces' invasion of the country during World War II. The neutrality of Austria was enshrined in legislation on October 26, 1955. The government would not join military cooperation or pick sides in hostilities, and it would not host foreign military bases on its land.

Sweden remained neutral during WWII but was a member of the Non-Aligned Alliance at the time of the Cold War, although that formally abandoned its neutrality when it entered the EU in 1995. While public sentiment in Sweden has lately shifted in favour of entering NATO, Prime Minister Magdalena Andersson has ruled out the prospect, stating it would "further destabilise the situation."

Austria and Sweden, as well as Cyprus, Finland, Ireland, and Malta, are all members of the European Union but do not share a military alliance.

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