Climate Change: 2.2 Billion People In India, Indus Valley Could Be Exposed To Heat-Related Health Risks

As climate change and extreme weather events like heat waves become more frequent and intense, billions of people could be exposed to them and have an impact on their health, a new study has claimed.

According to a study by Penn State College of Health and Human Development, Purdue University College of Sciences and Purdue Institute for a Sustainable Future and published in the "Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, global temperatures are likely to increase by another 1¨C6 ¡ãC by 2100.

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Heatwaves to become more devastating

This would result in heatwaves becoming more severe, frequent, and prevalent.

This, the researchers say will result in a large population struggling to survive in periods of deadly, humid heat within this century as temperatures rise, particularly in some of the world's largest cities, from Delhi to Shanghai

The study built on past research by Huber, George Mason University climatologist Daniel Vecellio and other scientists on the point at which heat and humidity combine to push the human body beyond its limits without shade or help from technologies such as air conditioning.

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Who will be the worst hit

It found that around 750 million people could experience one week per year of potentially deadly humid heat if temperatures rise 2 degrees Celsius above preindustrial levels.

At 3C of warming, more than 1.5 billion people would face such a threat.

"With increased global warming, the regions that will experience the first moist heat waves and subsequent substantial increases in accumulated hot-hours per year are also the regions with the largest concentrations of the world¡¯s population, specifically, those in India and the Indus River Valley (population: 2.2 billion), eastern China (population: 1.0 billion), and sub-Saharan Africa (population: 0.8 billion)," the study noted.

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India, Pakistan already experiencing it

The world is on track for 2.8C of warming by the year 2100 under current policies, according to the 2022 United Nations Emissions Gap report.

While India, Pakistan and the Gulf already have briefly touched dangerous humid heat in recent years, the study found it will afflict major cities from Lagos, Nigeria, to Chicago, Illinois if the world keeps heating up.

"While impacts are fairly contained to eastern Pakistan and the Indus River Valley in northern India in the 1.5 ¡ãC and 2 ¡ãC warming scenarios, they expand greatly in 3 ¡ãC and 4 ¡ãC warmer worlds with substantial accumulation of annual hot-hours along the Indian coast of the Bay of Bengal as well as into the countries of Bangladesh and parts of Myanmar," the study said.

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Heatwaves in Indian subcontinent

"Extreme dry-bulb temperatures of 50 ¡ãC also affected the Indian subcontinent during this extended heatwave. However, only 90 deaths were reported in the immediate aftermath, indicating that complex relationships between climate, health, and other socioeconomic factors must be taken in concert to develop a fuller understanding of heat-health," it added

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