Usual Summer Likely To Be Hotter In Most Parts Of India, Except South This Time, Here's Why

Day temperatures are likely to be above normal in north, northeast, parts of east and west India, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said on March 1 in its summer forecast for March to May. However, it has forecast a likelihood of below normal temperatures in south and adjoining central India.

There is a probability forecast for above maximum temperatures in Chhattisgarh, Odisha, Gujarat, coastal Maharashtra, Goa and coastal Andhra Pradesh.

REUTERS/JITENDRA PRAKASH

Chhattisgarh, Odisha to be hottest

IMD Director General Mrutunjay Mohapatra mentioned over the Indo-Gangetic plains ¡ª from Punjab, Haryana, Chandigarh, Delhi, east UP, west UP, Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand to Odisha ¡ª the temperature is predicted to be above regular by greater than 0.5 degree Celsius throughout March to May. There is an excessive chance with greater than 75 per cent of above regular temperature over Chhattisgarh and Odisha the place mercury will likely be above regular.

Ibtimes

He mentioned in these two states, temperature is more likely to be above regular by 0.86 degree Celsius and 0.66 degree Celsius respectively. ¡°There is also a 60 per cent probability of above normal temperature over Haryana, Chandigarh and Delhi by 0.5 degree Celsius,¡± he mentioned. There is more likely to be some reduction in elements of south India. ¡°Below normal seasonal maximum temperatures are likely over most of the subdivisions of south peninsula and adjoining central India,¡± the summer time forecast added.

Why is that so?

Climate scientists say large parts of India, except for the Indo-Gangetic plains, have experienced significant warming in the last 60 years due to human-induced climate change. A climatic shift has also been noted with a pronounced increase in frequency of hot days in the last four decades, scientists said.

¡°We find that more than 60% of India has experienced significant warming during the 1951-2015 observed record. The rise in summer temperature is already more than one degree in the last 60 or so years,¡± said Vimal Mishra of the Water and Climate Lab at Indian Institute of Technology (IIT)-Gandhinagar, referring to his latest study that taps into India Meteorological Department¡¯s observed data as well long-term simulations of 2,000 years that helps understand the future changes.

NASA

The forecast mentioned above regular seasonal minimal (evening) temperatures are seemingly over many of the of north India alongside the foot hills of Himalayas, northeast India, western a part of central India and southern a part of peninsular India. ¡°However, below normal season minimum temperatures are likely over most of the subdivisions of eastern part of the central India and few subdivisions of extreme northern part of the country,¡± the IMD added.

La Nina situations prevailing

The IMD added that average La Ni?a situations are prevailing over the equatorial Pacific and sea floor temperatures (SSTs) are beneath regular over the central and jap equatorial Pacific Ocean.

Reuters

The newest mannequin forecast signifies that La Ni?a situations are more likely to maintain through the upcoming sizzling climate season (March to May), it added. La Nina is related to the cooling of the Pacific waters and El Nino is its anthesis. The phenomenon has a influence on the climate of the Indian sub-continent. The IMD mentioned it would launch the second summer time forecast for April to June in April.

Warmest temperature recorded in January in 62 years

The IMD had mentioned the minimal temperature recorded within the nation in January was the warmest for the month in 62 years. South India was very warm. The month was the warmest in 121 years, with 22.33 degree Celsius in south India, adopted by 22.14 levels Celsius in 1919 and 21.93 levels Celsius in 2020 because the second and third warmest months.

BCCL

Central India was additionally the warmest (14.82 levels Celsius) within the final 38 years after 1982 (14.92 levels Celsius), whereas 1958 with 15.06 levels Celsius was the warmest within the 1901-2021 interval.