COP28: Here Is Why We May Not Have An Agreement On Phasing Out Fossil Fuels

The UN Climate Change Conference (COP28) in Dubai has entered its last day on Tuesday, December 12, and yet there is no agreement between the participating countries on a deal to phase out fossil fuels.

The sticking point for the nearly 200 participating countries has been a historic step of calling for the first time for a global phase-out of fossil fuels, which account for three-quarters of greenhouse gas emissions blamed for the planetary crisis.

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How OPEC forced to change the draft

However, the draft's wording contradicted oil-dependent economies and the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC).

Following this, the wording of the latest draft called for countries to reduce "consumption and production of fossil fuels, in a just, orderly and equitable manner."

The draft put forward by COP28 president Sultan Al Jaber, who is also the head of the UAE's national oil company -- only lists a series of options, including reductions in fossil fuel production and consumption.

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Why the new draft is not good enough

The 21-page text does not go so far as to demand action on fossil fuels, only presenting measures that nations "could" take.

The latest draft deal also includes calls to accelerate zero- and low-emission technologies -- including renewables and nuclear power -- in language similar to a joint statement reached last month by the United States and China, the world's two biggest emitters.

What campaigners say

But campaigners and countries that are most vulnerable to climate change are calling for more decisive steps, arguing that time is running out to stop global warming from breaching the 1.5-degree Celsius mark, at which point it will become irreversible.

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Why the agreement matters

Scientists say the planet has already warmed by 1.2 degrees Celsius (2.2 Fahrenheit) from pre-industrial times and that 2023- marked by lethal disasters, including wildfires worldwide- has likely been the warmest in 100,000 years.

The 2015 Paris Summit endorsed an ambition of checking warming at 1.5 Celsius -- a goal endorsed in the latest draft, but which critics say is virtually impossible without serious efforts to curb oil, gas and coal.

United States climate envoy John Kerry said the language on fossil fuels in the text "does not meet the test" of keeping 1.5 alive.

"I, like most of you here, refuse to be part of a charade" of not phasing out fossil fuels, Kerry said. "This is a war for survival."

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Nobel Laureate former US Vice President and climate activist Al Gore was more vocal in his criticism of the new draft.

"The world desperately needs to phase out fossil fuels as quickly as possible, but this obsequious draft reads as if OPEC dictated it word for word. ... It is deeply offensive to all who have taken this process seriously," he posted on social media.

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