IIT Kharagpur Invents Accurate Method To Detect Cyclones At Least Four Days Early

Scientists in India have discovered a novel technique for early detection of development or strengthening of tropical cyclones in the atmospheric column before satellite detection over the ocean surface in the northern Indian Ocean region.

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Until now, remote sensing techniques have enabled early detection of cyclones, however, it only works after the system develops a well-marked low-pressure system over the warm ocean surface.

But, before a cyclonic system forms over the warm oceanic environment, in the initial stages, the atmospheric instability mechanism along with vortex development is triggered at higher atmospheric levels.

Researchers claim that these cyclonic eddies are prominent indicators that reveal their potential to induce and develop into a well-marked cyclonic depression over a warm ocean surface.

A team of scientists including Jiya Albert, Bishnupriya Sahoo, and Prasad K. Bhaskaran from IIT Kharagpur, developed this method using the eddy detection technique to investigate the formative stages and advance detection time of tropical cyclones in the North Indian Ocean region.

The study (published in the journal Atmospheric Research) was conducted with cases of four post-monsoon severe cyclones -- Phailin (2013), Vardah (2013), Gaja (2018), Madi (2013), and two pre-monsoon cyclones Mora (2017) and Aila (2009) that developed over northern Indian Ocean region.

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The method identified initial traces of pre-cyclonic eddy vortices in the atmospheric column and kept a track of its Spatio-temporal evolution. For this, they took the help of a coarser grid resolution of 27 kilometres for identification and a finer resolution of nine kilometres to evaluate the characteristics of eddy vortices.

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According to researchers, the new method can give a lead time for a minimum of four days (90 hours) for the cyclones developed during pre and post-monsoon seasons.

They claim that early detection of tropical cyclones has wide socio-economic implications and a larger time gap between the detection and the impact of the cyclone could help preparation activities.