Preliminary Tests Suggest Covid-19 Variant BA.2.86 Is 'Less Severe'

Preliminary laboratory studies indicate that the newly identified COVID-19 variation, BA.2.86, may not be as dangerous as previously thought. While caution is required, these early discoveries provide some hope in the fight against the virus. Scientists all over the world are working hard to understand the highly modified BA.2.86 version of the virus that causes COVID-19.

Experts think that preliminary results are providing some reassurance. Two groups, one in China and one in Sweden, have publicly disclosed their findings, and more are likely from the United States as early as Monday.

So far, preliminary results show BA.2.86 as more of a paper tiger than the looming beast it first appeared to be, though this impression may alter as more results become available.

Covid-19 Variant BA.2.86 Less Severe?

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BA.2.86, commonly known as Pirola, got the world's attention since it looked dramatically different from any other coronavirus variations discovered thus far. This novel lineage contains more than 30 differences in its spike protein compared to its closest progenitor, BA.2, and the recently circulating XBB.1.5 lineage. It was an evolutionary leap comparable to the one achieved by the initial Omicron variation, BA.1, almost two years ago ¡ª and everyone remembers how that went down.

Infections and hospitalizations in the United States peaked during the Omicron wave. Weekly deaths hit their second-highest level, demonstrating how even a milder strain of the virus can pose a severe threat if a tidal wave of infection spreads throughout the community. Vaccines needed to be updated.

Omicron soon surpassed other COVID-19 varieties and began producing its offshoots ¨C viruses with which we are currently contending. It became a lesson in how adaptable the virus can be and how vulnerable our defences are in the face of such drastic changes.

Not The Return Of Omicron

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The White House was concerned enough about another Omicron-level disaster that it privately polled a dozen experts early this year about the likelihood of such an event occurring within the next two years. Most experts estimated the possibility to be between 10% and 20%.

When BA.2.86 arrived in late July with spooky echoes of Omicron, variation hunters were alarmed, and researchers rushed to learn more about the new lineage.

It has so far infiltrated at least 11 countries, including the United States. Denmark has reported the most sequences thus far, and specialists say they are keenly monitoring the situation for hints of its expansion.

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However, just a few dozen sequences from the same number of infected patients have recently appeared in a global repository. Even with much less genetic surveillance than we used to have, experts believe BA.2.86 would be detectable.

"This is not the second coming of Omicron, my friends. If it were, we would have known by now," Dr Bill Hanage, co-director of Harvard University's Centre for Communicable Disease Dynamics, stated in a social media post.

Now, scientists are conducting lab experiments to understand better how well our immune systems and vaccines will recognise and defend against viruses in the BA.2.86 family, either using copies of the actual virus isolated from patients or models of its spike proteins grafted onto the body of a different virus.

The Results Of Early Studies Provide Reassurance

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Researchers in China discovered that BA.2.86 looks very different to our immune systems than previous versions of the virus that causes COVID-19, and it can evade some of our immunity in the first series of experiments using the blood of vaccinated mice and vaccinated and recently infected people.

Yunlong Cao of Peking University's Biomedical Innovation Centre observed a twofold decrease in our ability to neutralise the BA.2.86 virus from vaccination and recent infection compared to viruses from the XBB.1.5 family. A twofold decline could be better, but it's also not massive. In comparison, scientists use an eightfold decrease in the effectiveness of vaccine-created immunity to neutralise a new influenza virus as the criterion for updating the flu shot.

At the same time, the BA.2.86 virus was approximately 60% less contagious than XBB.1.5 viruses, which may explain why it has been detected in so many different nations but only at low levels.

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"I believe it will gradually spread throughout the population." It will be unable to compete with other rapidly prevailing varieties," Cao wrote in an email to CNN, alluding to variants such as EG.5 and FL.1.5.1, which now dominate transmission in the United States.

In a second series of trials, researchers from Sweden's Karolinska Institute tested BA.2.86 against antibodies in the blood of human volunteers obtained at two separate times: late 2022, before the XBB variation developed, and late August. The antibodies in the older samples could not correctly shut down BA.2.86, whereas blood samples collected just a week ago performed better.

"Overall, it doesn't appear to be nearly as extreme a situation as the original emergence of Omicron," principal researcher Benjamin Murrell wrote in a social media post.

"It isn't clear whether BA.2.86 (or its offspring) will outcompete the currently circulating variants, and I don't think there is yet any data on its severity," he added. "However, our antibodies do not appear completely powerless against it."

Learn About Pseudoviruses

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Both of these studies have flaws. The researchers were experimenting with pseudoviruses, essentially models of the BA.2.86 virus, rather than the virus itself. The Swedish study employed only a modest number of blood donor samples. Because these studies used blood donors from China and Sweden, people's immunity in the United States may differ because they were infected with different variations and immunised with other vaccines.

Despite this, experts are encouraged by the early results and eager to see more in the following days.

The Variant Technical Group at the UK's Health Security Agency met this week to discuss whether BA.2.86 should be reclassified in that country from a "variant under monitoring" to a "variant of concern."

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The group concluded in a Friday update that BA.2.86 does not meet their definition of a variant of concern because there is no evidence that its profile represents a harmful change to its biological properties or a growth rate indicating it would move at least as fast or faster than currently circulating variants.

According to the researchers, two samples of the virus are being cultured in the UK, and results from those lab investigations are expected in at least 1-2 weeks. Meanwhile, they stated that they are awaiting responses from foreign partners. They, like the rest of the world, await the appearance of BA.2.86.

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