UN report: India's population hits 1.46 billion, fertility drops below replacement rate; experts warn of alarming urban TFR decline

In a shocking update, a United Nations (UN) report revealed on Tuesday that India's population for 2025 is estimated at 1.46 billion as well and it has also flagged a declining total fertility rate (TFR) in the world's most populous country.

According to the UN Population Fund¡¯s (UNFPA) 2025 State of World Population Report, released on Tuesday, the population is expected to rise to about 1.7 billion before it starts to fall around 40 years from now.

Moreover, the population of China is estimated to reach 1.41 billion in 2025. On the other hand, India's population was 1.44 billion previous year, as per the World Population Prospects-2024.

India's fertility drops below the replacement rate

The report titled 'The Real Fertility Crisis' states that one in three adult Indians (36 per cent) face unintended pregnancies, while 30 per cent of them experience unfulfilled desire for having either more or fewer children.

Credit: PTI

Additionally, the UNFPA report showed India's TFR has dropped to 1.9, which is below the replacement level fertility of 2.1 births per woman. This number indicates that women are having fewer children than needed to maintain the population size from one generation to another.

What can be done to reverse the decline?

We should not take comfort in the fact that India¡¯s population has reached 1.46 billion. Instead, we should be concerned about the steadily declining Total Fertility Rate (TFR), which has now dropped to approximately 1.9.

¡°Reversing declining fertility rates requires a multi-faceted approach. Improving reproductive health services, including quality maternal and child healthcare, family planning resources, and STI prevention, is crucial,¡± says Dr Usha BR, Consultant - OBGYN, Robotic surgeon, Fertility & Laparoscopic Surgeon, Fortis Hospital, Bannerghatta Road, Bengaluru.

Family-friendly policies like paid parental leave, childcare support, and flexible work arrangements can encourage childbearing. ¡°Fertility awareness education and community involvement can dispel myths and misconceptions. Investing in maternal and child health programs to reduce infant mortality rates can increase confidence in raising children. Additionally, offering fertility support services like IVF can help those struggling with conception, ultimately supporting a healthier demographic balance and mitigating declining fertility rates in India,¡± adds Dr. BR.

Risk factors for the declining fertility rate in India

¡°If this trend continues, our population may begin to decline significantly, possibly falling to around 930 to 940 million by the year 2100. What is even more alarming is that in urban areas, which comprise about 45 per cent of India¡¯s population, the TFR is even lower, between 1.6 and 1.7,¡± warns Dr Manjunath, Deputy Medical Director, Birla Fertility and IVF, Bangalore.

¡°This decline is largely attributed to delayed marriages, and among those who are married, delayed pregnancies, with many couples opting to have only one child.

Compounding this issue is the growing incidence of diminished ovarian reserve among young women, which is becoming increasingly common. Additionally, the rising trend of women prioritising careers and postponing childbirth is contributing to the fertility decline.¡±

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Southern states are particularly affected, with sharper drops in TFR compared to their northern counterparts, prompting governments like Andhra Pradesh¡¯s to consider incentives for couples having more children.

According to Dr. Manjunath, ¡°If this trend continues, India may soon face fertility patterns similar to those seen in parts of Southeast Asia and developed European countries, leading to the loss of our demographic dividend.¡±

What can be done to manage the situation?

To counter this, it is important to encourage young couples to plan during their peak reproductive years. Dr. Manjunath says, ¡°We also need to raise awareness that fertility significantly declines after the age of 35. Conceiving naturally or with minimal medical assistance is typically easier between the ages of 25 and 35, and timely family planning is key to preserving reproductive health and national demographic stability.¡±