10 Stocks In Focus As Morgan Stanley Predicts Sensex To Hit 86,000 Mark By 2024
Assuming that Narendra Modi will return as Prime Minister after the Lok Sabha elections with a majority mandate, global brokerage firm Morgan Stanley has kept 74,000 as its Sensex target for December 2024.
US banking giant Morgan Stanley has made a highly optimistic prediction regarding India's stock market for the upcoming year 2024, which would also witness the Lok Sabha Elections taking place.
What Has Morgan Stanley Predicted About Sensex?
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American investment banking giant Morgan Stanley has given three predictions for Sensex for the upcoming year 2024.
Firstly, assuming that India's current PM Narendra Modi will return as Prime Minister after the Lok Sabha elections with a majority mandate, global brokerage firm Morgan Stanley has predicted Sensex to hit 74,000 by December 2024.
But in the bear case, the index may fall to 51,000 if elections deliver an unclear mandate with a change in government, oil prices surge past US$110/barrel, the RBI ends up tightening to protect macro stability, and a US recession leads global growth lower.
Morgan Stanley's bull case scenario with a 30% probability shows that Sensex can zoom as much as 86,000 if oil prices dip into the $70s or below, resulting in lower domestic inflation and deeper rate cuts from the RBI. The US growth cycle renews with global share prices responding with a strong up move and bond flows surprise to the upside, as per the ET report.
Also Read: Explained: Sensex, Nifty & Their Role In India's Stock Market
Which 10 Stocks Are On The Focus List?
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Morgan Stanley has replaced Titan and SBI Cards with Avenue Supermart and Reliance Industries in its focus list. Other stocks include Nykaa, Maruti Suzuki, ICICI Bank, SBI Life Insurance, HAL, L&T, Infosys, and UltraTech Cement.
"We are overweight on Consumer Discretionary, Industrials, Financials, and Technology and Underweight all other sectors," the brokerage said in a report.
How Is Sensex Performing This Year?
Sensex is currently up more than 6.5% this year till date, hovering around the 65,850 mark at present.On the other hand, Nifty50 is up more than 8% this year till date, currently hovering around the 19,750 mark.
Also Read: American Investment Bank Jefferies Predicts Sensex To Hit 1 Lakh In Next 5 Years
What Assumptions Have Been Taken For The Prediction?
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"We assume continuity in a government with a majority mandate, robust domestic growth, the US does not slip into a protracted recession, and benign oil prices. Government policy remains supportive, and the RBI executes a calibrated exit from its current hold stance," Morgan Stanley said.
Although early 2024 could be marked by high volatility for Indian equities amid the general elections, the global investment bank holds a positive stance and sees it outperforming not only China but many other emerging market peers in the following year.
India has delivered strong relative earnings, sustaining the strong market outperformance seen in 2022, while macro-fundamentals have withstood tightening financial conditions in the US.
¡°India is set to establish secular economic and earnings outperformance vs EM,¡± the investment bank said in its 2024 outlook report.
Also Read: Inside The Portfolios Of India's Biggest Stock Market Investors
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