El Ni?o And Global Warming Could Make 2023-27 The Hottest Five Years Ever, Warns UN Report
Will the world see the hottest year ever recorded in the next five years? The United Nations says that there is a 98% chance for a year between 2023-27 to become the warmest ever.
According to a report by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) of the United Nations, the five years between 2023-27 could be the hottest five years the world has seen.
El Ni?o and Global Warming
A combination of global warming and the likelihood of the formation of El Ni?o/Southern Oscillation may push global temperatures to new highs.
The WMO said there was a 66 percent chance that annual global surface temperatures will exceed 1.5C above pre-industrial levels for at least one of the years 2023-2027, with a range of 1.1C to 1.8C forecasted for each of those five years.
The annual mean global near-surface temperature for each year between 2023 and 2027 is predicted to be between 1.1¡ãC and 1.8¡ãC, which is higher than the 1850-1900 average.
The WMO report, Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update, further warned that if humanity fails to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to net zero, increasingly worse heat records will tumble beyond this decade.
Hottest eight years so far
The hottest eight years ever recorded were all between 2015 and 2022, with 2016 being the warmest -- but temperatures are forecast to increase further as climate change accelerates.
"There is a 98-percent likelihood that at least one of the next five years, and the five-year period as a whole, will be the warmest on record," the WMO said.
WMO Secretary-General Petteri Taalas, however, said that this breach of the target is not likely to be permanent. "WMO is sounding the alarm that we will breach the 1.5 degrees Celsius level on a temporary basis with increasing frequency," he said.
The?El Ni?o factor
While global temperatures have been rising, this time, the formation of El Ni?o is making matters worse.
El Nino is the large-scale warming of surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. The weather phenomenon typically occurs every two to seven years.
What happens in an?El Ni?o year
El Ni?o events are associated with warmer-than-normal seas over much of the central and eastern Pacific and can cause reduced rains in Asian and African countries.
El Ni?o prediction
El Ni?o has not formed yet, but several agencies worldwide, including US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and the India Meteorological Department (IMD), have predicted a high chance for El Ni?o to form this summer. According to NOAA, there is a 90 per cent chance for El Ni?o to develop and it could happen as early as May.
The IMD has also said there is a good chance that a moderate El Nino might emerge during the June-September period but added that it is unlikely to significantly impact monsoon rains this year.
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