El Ni?o Is Here, Says NOAA, Could Affect India's Entire Monsoon Season
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)in the US has said that there is a 95% chance that the El Ni?o was officially underway in June, which could be worse than what happened in 2016.
According to NOAA the El Ni?o will continue through February 2024, with climate consequences likely to stretch far and wide.
In June the agency had announced that the El Nino climate phenomenon?was officially underway.
Marked by warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean near the equator, the weather pattern last occurred in 2018-19 and takes place every 2-7 years on average.
Impact of El Nino
"Depending on its strength, El Nino can cause a range of impacts, such as increasing the risk of heavy rainfall and droughts in certain locations around the world," said NOAA climate scientist Michelle L'Heureux, adding it could also lead to new temperature records.
"Climate change can exacerbate or mitigate certain impacts related to El Nino. For example, El Nino could lead to new records for temperatures, particularly in areas that already experience above-average temperatures during El Nino," she added.
What is El Nino?
El Nino, meaning "Little Boy" in Spanish, is the warm phase of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation.
La Nina, meaning "Little Girl," is its colder counterpart, where sea surface temperatures in the eastern and central Pacific Ocean near the equator are lower than normal.
Why El Nino is bad for India
While the formation of El Nino this year was expected, it is bad news for India.
In the past, India has experienced below-average rainfall during most El Nino years, sometimes leading to severe droughts that destroyed crops and forced authorities to limit the export of some grains.
This year El Nino has formed at the start of the monsoon season in India, which could severely affect the rainfall.
With this, the entire monsoon season (June-September) will likely be in the presence of a strengthening El Nino. This means the large-scale weather features will not favour good seasonal rainfall.
"The five dynamical weather models that we studied as part of our new multi-model ensemble forecasting system for the monsoon showed normal rainfall over the four-month period. These models don't tell us which particular weather parameters are likely to offset the influence of El Nino, although Indian Ocean conditions (IOD) are expected to be positive for rainfall," said IMD chief Mrutyunjay Mohapatra.
Delayed monsoon arrives in India
The IMD on Thursday announced the arrival of the much-expected monsoon on the Indian mainland, seven days delayed from the normal.
"Monsoon reaches Kerala usually by June 1 but this time it arrived on June 8. There has been a seven-day delay. Kerala received good rainfall in two days and southern Tamil Nadu also has similar conditions," Mohapatra said.
"In the next 48 hours, the monsoon will advance to some areas of the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal. Apart from this, it will also reach the remaining parts of Kerala, some parts of Tamil Nadu and Karnataka. The monsoon is also likely to advance to the northeastern states as well in the next 48 hours," he added.
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