In Some Good News For Maharashtra, State's COVID-19 Growth Rate Falls Below National Average

The COVID-19 outbreak in Maharashtra continues to be the worst in the country and at 72,300, accounts for almost one-third of all the cases reported in India.As of Wednesday, there are 38,493 active cases in the state out of which 2,358 were reported in the past 24 hours.?

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On Tuesday, Mumbai alone reported 41,986 confirmed cases after 1,109 confirmed patients were reported in the last 24 hours. With 49 more fatalities, as many as 1,368 virus-related deaths have been reported in the city since the outbreak.?

Even while the situation looks grim, there is some good news coming from the state. For the first time, the growth rate has of infections in the state has slowed to fall below that of the country as a whole.?

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According to The Indian Express, the seven-day compounded daily growth rate (CDGR) for Maharashtra has remained below the national average for three consecutive days now.On June 1, when the national growth rate was 4.74, it was 4.15 in Maharashtra.In contrast, just a month ago on May 1, when the national growth rate was 6.24 the number of cases was growing at 7.26 in Maharashtra.?

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The state's Health Department has also said that the recovery rate in the state is 43.33 percent while the fatality rate in the State stands at 3.4 percent.However, it is still very early to say that if Maharashtra has crossed the peak of COVID-19.?

Last month State health minister Rajesh Tope had said that the government expects the cases to peak by the end of June. But some experts had said that the numbers could start declining from May 31 when the fifth incubation period of the virus will be over. “We will have to wait for another 14-day incubation cycle to complete (by May 31). After this, the rise is likely to come under control, and we may witness a gradual decline. If it does not reduce then, we may be in the community transmission stage,” Dr. Tatyarao Lahane, director, Directorate of Medical Education and Research (DMER) had said last month.?

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Though the government and ICMR has not officially acknowledged community transmission in India yet, a joint statement by Indian Public Health Association, Indian Association of Preventive and Social Medicine and Indian Association of Epidemiologists had said that “It is unrealistic to expect that COVID-19 pandemic can be eliminated at this stage given that community transmission is already well-established across large sections or sub-populations in the country.”